The Milwaukee Brewers (61-42) host the Atlanta Braves (51-52) Friday for the start of a three-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1.
RHP Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes is 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA (102 IP, 24 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 in 17 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
- 2021 road splits: 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 11.8 K/BB rate in seven starts.
RHP Touki Toussaint makes his third start for the Braves. Toussaint is 1-1 with a 1.32 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 2 BB and 15 K this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday.
- Career home splits: 6-1 with a 4.11 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB rate in seven starts and 13 bullpen outings.
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Brewers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Braves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Braves +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 7, Braves 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because oddsmakers have moved the line 15 cents on the dollar in favor of Milwaukee (according to Pregame.com), which indicates the House is taking well-respected money on the Brew Crew.
Milwaukee’s lineup really struggled through the first half of the season but has been raking to start the second half. Milwaukee’s lineup ranks third in WAR, sixth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA and ninth in BB% since the All-Star break.
Also, Toussaint has pitched awesome in his first two starts of the season, but he has a career 5.38 ERA, so regression is most likely forthcoming. Atlanta’s bullpen isn’t reliable enough if Toussaint can’t give the Braves a quality start.
Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 19th in xFIP, 22nd in SIERA and 21st in K-BB% whereas Milwaukee’s relievers rank in the top 10 of all those metrics.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+120) because I’d probably just stick with Milwaukee’s money line, but the Brew Crew is the right side in this game.
Milwaukee is tied with the best cover rate on the road this season (33-17 ATS). However, my hesitancy in this spot is Atlanta’s 6-2 ATS mark as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-105) for a tiny wager if at all since nearly three-fourths of the public is backing the Under whereas a slight majority of the cash is on the Over.
Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.
Not only that, but despite how nasty Burnes has been this season, the Brewers are still 8-6-2 O/U when he starts. Plus, Milwaukee has scored at least 6 runs in seven of the last 10 games.
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