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No. 16 Michigan State hosts No. 19 Ohio State this Sunday (4:30 CBS) with the Spartans looking to win their third consecutive Big Ten title. The Buckeyes will be looking to play spoiler in the conference race, but have completely rebounded from a mid-season slump to find themselves right back in the thick of the national picture.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 21-9 overall, 13-6 Big Ten

-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 12 in adjusted offense

-No. 13 in adjusted defense

-No. 129 in adjusted tempo

Ohio State: 21-9 overall, 11-8 Big Ten

-No. 8 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 15 in adjusted offense

-No. 17 in adjusted defense

-No. 276 in adjusted tempo

The Ohio State Buckeyes looked like one of the best teams in the country in 2019. They had blowout wins over Villanova, Penn State, and North Carolina. They beat Kentucky. They were rolling and ranked as high as No. 2 in the country. Then came 2020. Ohio State lost six of seven games as the year turned and went from world beaters to the tournament bubble. They’ve since rebounded and come into the Breslin Center having four straight games and nine of their last 11 overall. The Buckeyes are playing as well as anybody in the country right now.

Let’s dive into some specifics of how these teams match up.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 49 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 126 in turnover %, No. 40 in Oreb%, No. 227 in free throw rate

Ohio State defense four factors: No. 30 eFG% against, No. 194 in turnover %, No. 62 in Oreb%, No. 102 in FTR

These two teams are pretty evenly matched. That makes sense given these two teams are ranked seven and eight in adjusted efficiency margin. I’ve written about this that last few weeks, but MSU is really starting to shoot the ball well. It’s, by far, the single biggest reason they’ve turned it around on offense. The offensive rebounding remains very good, but OSU is capable on the defensive glass. The turnover numbers have flattened out after a midseason dip, but OSU doesn’t force many turnovers. Their steal percentage is one of the worst int he country. Playing at home could come into play, because if there’s one spot MSU is at a disadvantage on this side of the floor, its free throw rate. The Spartans simply have not gotten to the line enough in conference play. Some home cooking with the whistle could be really important in this one. Overall, it’s kind of going to be who can step up and play better than expected in a certain category. Can MSU have an elite shooting day? Can OSU crush it on the defensive glass? Can MSU get to the free throw line a ton. Can OSU force a bunch of turnovers? There are seemingly questions in all of the four factors, which makes for an exciting game.

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State offensive four factors: No. 56 in eFG%, No. 207 in turnover %, No. 66 in Oreb%, No. 72 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 3 in eFG% against, No. 333 in turnover %, No. 96 in Oreb% against, No. 97 in FTR

This side of the floor is pretty similar to the other side, which a couple more extreme rankings, both courtesy of Michigan State. The Spartans are one of the best teams in the country at making teams miss. Ohio State doesn’t miss a ton, but they might in this one. Even then, they do a really good job at grabbing offensive rebounds, and it’s not just one guy like Illinois with Kofi Cockburn. They rebound well as a team on that end. Something that is very important to note is Ohio State’s three-point numbers. The Buckeyes are ranked 19th in 3P% in the country at 37.4%. However, Michigan State ranks 7th in the country in opponents 3P% at 28.7%. It may seem simplistic, and all of these factors matter, but this game might just come down to whether Ohio State makes 40% of their threes or 30%.

Other key numbers

Ohio State ranks 165th in opponent 3P% and MSU has risen all the way to 86th in that category on offense. Can MSU keep shooting the ball well from deep as a team? Does the home crowd help Gabe Brown and Kyle Ahrens knock in a few shots? Big questions in such an important game.

Kaleb Wesson (43.3 %), Duane Washington (39.6%), Andre Wesson (42.6%), Justin Ahrens (41.1%). These four aren’t just pretty good or decent shooters from deep–they are all elite three-point shooters. Ahrens doesn’t quite have the volume of the other two, but there’s no doubt his numbers are legit given his shooting last season and that he’s an Ahrens. At any given moment Ohio State with have at least three of these guys on the floor. Preventing open looks is going to be so massive.

Ohio State ranks 321st on offense in giving up non-steal turnovers. It’s very hard to steal the ball from the Buckeyes, but it looks as if they can be careless with the ball and turn it over without being forced. Neither team can afford to be sloppy and give away possessions, but it looks like OSU might be team more vulnerable to doing just that.

Ohio State is just 3-6 on the road in Big Ten play and two of those wins came against Nebraska and Northwestern. Their only true road win against a tough conference opponent came on February 4 when they went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan.

In their last two road losses, against Wisconsin and Iowa, Ohio State has shot just 30.6% from three and pretty big volume. They’ve had *some* struggles on the road shooting, but they’ve also shot well from deep on the road and still lost due to poor defense or inefficient two-point shooting.

Three Buckeyes–Kaleb Wesson, EJ Liddell, and Kyle Young–are all nationally ranked in offensive rebounding percentage. Liddell is a springy young wing off the bench and whomever is matched up with him is going to have to keep him off the glass. Wesson is Wesson and is a problem whenever. Young seemingly won’t play with a sprained ankle, but he’s still been listed as day-to-day so I guess I won’t assume too much.

Conclusion

These two teams are both really good and evenly matched. There aren’t too many spots where one has a huge advantage over the other. They both shoot it. They both rebound. They turn it over and don’t turn over their opponents enough. It all lines up. In games like this, somebody is going to have to do something a little out of the ordinary. Can Gabe Brown shoot 4-5 from three? Does Cassius Winston go for 27? Does Aaron Henry get 20 on efficient shooting and living at the free throw line? Whichever team gets that kind of performance will probably win. It should be a really exciting game with how comparable these two teams are. MSU does have the advantage of it being Senior Day and they have the motivation of a third straight Big Ten title hanging in the balance. But those things can also be overwhelming and end up as a negative if things go wrong. We’ll see. KenPom has this game as a 72-67 victory for Michigan State, a 65% of an MSU win.

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