[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Miami Marlins (23-45) and Washington Nationals (32-36) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Nationals lead 4-0
Miami lost in dramatic fashion Thursday 3-2 on a walk-off, 2-run home run in the bottom of the 9th by New York Mets DH J.D. Martinez. The Marlins, who have dropped 2 in a row and 8 of their last 10 games, received a terrific outing from RHP Roddery Munoz (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 K) in a no-decision. The Marlins, who were +188 underdogs, scored on solo homers from 3B/1B Jake Burger and CF Jazz Chisholm Jr., and the Under (8.5) cashed.
The Nationals had s 5-game win streak snapped Thursday in a 7-2 loss as +140 road underdogs to the Detroit Tigers. LHP Patrick Corbin was the hard luck loser (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 K) and the only offense Washington could manage was 2 sacrifice flies from 3B/LF Ildemaro Vargas. They return home to Nats Park for a 6-game homestand where they are 13-17 on the season.
Marlins at Nationals projected starters
TBD vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore
Miami manager Skip Schumaker had not named a starting pitcher for this series opener as of this publishing.
Gore (5-5, 3.44 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 68 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R) 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-3 home victory against the Atlanta Braves Saturday
- Carer vs. Marlins: 1 start, loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-3 road loss May 17, 2023
- 2024 home splits: 3-3, 4.24 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 8 starts
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Marlins at Nationals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +138 (bet $100 to win $138) | Nationals -164 (bet $164 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Off the board
- Over/Under (O/U): Off the board
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline.
The Nationals (-164) are playing good baseball and have owned the Marlins this season thus far. It doesn’t matter who starts for Miami, Washington should win this game.
However, I’m willing to PASS on the -164 juice and I’ll back Washington’s run line — once it gets posted — as I see the Nationals winning by at least 2 runs.
Run line/Against the spread
Once the line is posted, BET NATIONALS -1.5 and don’t worry about the juice. It’s likely to be around -120 to -105.
Gore has had a very underrated season for the Nationals. He’s really had just one bad outing this season. It was 2 starts ago (June 3) against the Mets when he yielded 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. Other than that, Gore hasn’t allowed more than 3 ERs in any start this season. Plus, as mentioned, Washington is 4-0 against Miami this season.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have been awful against left handed pitchers, going 3-20. They also have an under .600 OPS against lefties. It’s almost comical how bad they are against left-handers.
Over/Under
OVER is the play here.
While the O/U is currently off the board as the sportsbooks wait for a Miami starting pitcher to be announced, I’m willing to BET OVER 8.5 runs or lower. If it’s posted at 9 or higher, AVOID.
Three of the 4 head-to-head games this season have cashed Over tickets. One of those finals had Washington winning 12-9 and another saw Washington prevail 11-4.
Washington has been Over in 4 of its last 5 games.
I see a game script where Gore holds the Marlins to 2 runs or less and the Washington bullpen will likely let up a run or 2 late, but the Nationals will score enough runs of their own.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]