The Miami Marlins (7-8) start a 3-game series with the National League East co-tenant Washington Nationals (6-12) Monday. First pitch at Nationals Park is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami won back-to-back games in Atlanta Saturday and Sunday to win a 3-game series with the Braves after losing 2 of 3 games versus the St. Louis Cardinals.
Washington is riding a 5-game losing skid, which includes a 3-game sweep in the previous series against the San Francisco Giants this past weekend and a split of a 4-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks last week.
The Nationals beat the Marlins 11-8 in last year’s regular-season series and Washington outscored Miami by 33 runs (101-68) in those contests.
Marlins at Nationals projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Josiah Gray
Alcantara (1-0, 1.86 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 19 1/3 IP.
- Got a no-decision in Miami’s 2-0 loss to the Cardinals Wednesday, throwing 8-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. Nationals: 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 over 2 starts.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 4.44 FIP with a .199 expected batting average (xBA), .272 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .382 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 22.9 K% and 87.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 82 plate appearances (PA).
Gray (2-1, 3.14 ERA) makes his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.
- Beat the D-Backs in his last outing Tuesday, hurling 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K in a 6-1 victory.
- 2021 vs. Marlins: 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 15 K across 2 starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 6.75 FIP with a .217 xBA, .346 xwOBA, .498 xSLG, 24.2 K% and 89.1 mph EV in 33 PA.
Marlins at Nationals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:26 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 4, Marlins 3
Money line
TAKE the NATIONALS (+102) because they were 6-3 overall in Washington versus the Marlins last season and Alcantara’s numbers are so-so in Nationals Park.
Alcantara is just 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.28 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 4 career starts in Washington, which are all worse than his career averages. Washington’s bullpen pitching peripherals are also actually better than Miami’s.
Miami’s lineup has surprisingly been far more productive than Washington’s thus far but I think that gap narrows as the season progresses. Miami’s lineup was projected to be a below-average unit preseason.
While Washington’s 3- through 5-hitters feature baseball’s best hitter in RF Juan Soto, DH Nelson Cruz and 1B Josh Bell who both can hit 30-plus home runs.
BET the NATIONALS (+102).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Nationals +1.5 (-170) is far too expensive considering Washington has a losing RL record versus NL East foes and as a home underdog since the beginning of last season.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130) because the Over being much cheaper is the oddsmakers’ way of trying to incentivize bettors into a square wager.
Both starters have looked good to start the year and the weather forecast is predicting a slight wind blowing in from left-centerfield and wet conditions, which could suppress the hitting.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]