The Los Angeles Dodgers (20-17) host the Miami Marlins (17-20) for the first of a three-game set in Dodger Stadium at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Marlins with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami won back-to-back games at the Arizona Diamondbacks to tie their four-game series 2-2 following a four-game losing skid to the D-Backs and Milwaukee Brewers. The Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
L.A. won both games at the Seattle Mariners Tuesday and Wednesday, but the Dodgers are just 7-13 over their last 20. Before the two-game sweep of Seattle, L.A. lost five consecutive series.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starter for the Marlins. Alcantara is 1-2 with a 2.72 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 8 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 7 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 2-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
- Career vs. the Dodgers: No-decision in 5 IP with 6 ER (2 HR), 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Miami’s 10-6 loss at L.A. in his only start against the Dodgers (2019).
- Vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 17 at-bats with a .353/.450/.647 slash line, 4/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBI.
LHP Clayton Kershaw is on the rubber for the Dodgers. Kershaw is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 8 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 14-11, in 5 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.
- Career vs. the Marlins: 6-5 with a 2.34 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 over 13 starts.
- Vs. Marlins on the current roster: 98 at-bats with a .143/.184/.184 slash line, 42/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Dodgers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Dodgers 6, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because the Dodgers (-225) prices me out of taking L.A. outright considering Alcantara has top-notch stuff and Miami’s bullpen has pitched significantly better than L.A.’s so far.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the DODGERS -0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS because of L.A.’s said bullpen issues, Alcantara is a lot less effective vs. winning teams, and Kershaw’s advanced pitching numbers vs. the Marlins lineup are impressive.
For his career, Alcantara allows two-plus more runs per game vs. teams with a winning record, has a 1.41 WHIP (1.05 WHIP vs. teams with a losing record) and is 6-16 against winning teams.
Also, Kershaw has a 1.35 FIP with a .229 expected wOBA vs. the Marlins lineup whereas Alcantara has a 6.43 FIP and .451 expected wOBA against L.A.’s hitters.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 6.5 (-120) for a tiny wager because I think L.A.’s lineup does damage to Alcantara early, and both teams put in their lesser effective relievers if this game is in hand early. That means the backdoor is open for the Over despite the starters’ stuff.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]