The Colorado Rockies (21-26) host the Miami Marlins (19-26) Monday at Coors Field for the 1st of their 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami is 3-7 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games. It has lost 4 of the last 5 games, including Sunday’s 6-3 loss in the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Atlanta Braves.
Colorado is also 3-7 SU in the last 10 and has lost 7 consecutive series with the last 2 coming against the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates, both of whom are in last place in their respective divisions.
The Memorial Day game is their first meeting this season. The Rockies were 4-2 SU last season vs. the Marlins and swept the 3-game set in Colorado. The Rockies outscored the Marlins by 20 (34-14) in that series.
Marlins at Rockies projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Ryan Feltner
Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 53 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-0 Tuesday at the Tampa Bay Rays with 7 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 HR, 0 BB and 9 K.
- 2021 vs. the Rockies: One start, a 6-2 home win June 8 with 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
Feltner is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 14 K in 2 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Wednesday’s 10-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
Marlins at Rockies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Rockies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+102) | Rockies +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Marlins at Rockies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Rockies 4
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the MARLINS (-155) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price and the Rockies (+125) play much better at Coors Field. But Miami has a 3-phase edge over Colorado in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Lopez’s fastball-changeup combination has been gnarly this season and he ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate and 86th percentile in whiff rate, according to Statcast.
Also, Colorado’s bullpen is last in ERA (5.10) whereas Miami’s bullpen has a 3.23 ERA (ranked 6th), 33.6% outside-the-zone swing rate (6th) and 13.2% swinging-strike rate (4th), per FanGraphs.
Finally, Miami’s lineup ranks 4th in wRC+ (113) and 5th in wOBA (.326) vs. right-handed pitching while Colorado has an 85 wRC+ (ranked 26th), according to FanGraphs.
If your standard unit is $100 then risk that on the MARLINS (-155) to earn a $64 profit since the Rockies (+125) are a much different team in Coors Field.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Marlins -1.5 (+102) are 1-5 RL as road favorites and Miami has lost 4 of Lopez’s last 5 starts despite his All-Star-caliber form and the Rockies +1.5 (-125) are 7-5 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
PASS.
Miami’s pitching staff is one of the best in baseball but Coors Field is a launching pad and Colorado’s bullpen is terrible. Also, the Marlins are 9-14 O/U on the road and the Rockies are 14-11 O/U at home. There isn’t a lot of value on either side of this 10.5-run total.
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