The Miami Marlins (58-55) open a 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds (59-55) on Monday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1
The Marlins were shut out 6-0 by the Texas Rangers on Sunday to extend their losing skid to 4 games. Miami is now 14 games behind the 1st place Atlanta Braves in the NL East due to its recent woes.
The Reds lost 6-3 to the Washington Nationals, handing them their 6th consecutive defeat. Cincinnati is 1 1/2 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the race for the NL Central crown.
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Marlins at Reds projected starters
RHP Eury Perez vs. LHP Brandon Williamson
Perez (5-3, 2.36 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 53 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 3-0 home loss to St. Louis Cardinals on July 6
- 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.35 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 10 ER) over 5 starts
- 2023 vs. Reds: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 7-4 loss on May 12 in MLB debut
Williamson (3-2, 4.85 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 68 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 16-6 road loss vs. Chicago Cubs Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 1-1, 4.42 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 19 ER) in 7 starts
- First career start vs. Marlins
Marlins at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Reds 3
Moneyline
Both teams have sputtered since the All-Star break, but I’ll back the MARLINS (-135) on the road with Perez returning to Miami’s rotation on Monday.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS -1.5 (+120) are a decent value as they should have success against Williamson. The Marlins are tied for the 4th-best wOBA (.356) and own the 5th-best wRC+ (126) against left-handed pitching since the start of July.
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Over/Under
This game takes place at a hitter-friendly venue, but I’ll go with the UNDER 10.5 (-110) in this contest. Both of these teams are 6-4 to the Under in their last 10 games overall.
The Marlins are also 10-5 to the Under in their last 15 games, while the Reds are 18-6 to the Under in their last 24.
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