The Miami Marlins (46-52) and Cincinnati Reds (38-59) put a lid on their 4-game series at Great American Ball Park with a Thursday matinee. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1.
Miami is 10-5 in its last 15 road games. The Marlins own a 2.72 ERA over their last 8 games away from South Beach.
The Reds are 8-2 with a .775 OPS across their last 10 games at home. Cincinnati batters have struck out 27 times over their last 2 games.
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Marlins at Reds projected starters
LHP Daniel Castano vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Castano (1-3, 3.86 ERA) has appeared in 9 games this season and made 6 starts. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 35 IP.
- Is a 27-year-old in his 3rd big league season who has tossed 34 innings for AAA-Jacksonville in addition to his MLB action. Last pitched in the Majors July 12.
- Pitches to contact and has done well to avoid hard contact. His hard-contact rate on balls in play (20.7%) is well below league average.
Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) has made 11 starts this season. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 59 1/3 IP.
- Is a 24-year-old rookie who has thus far struggled against right-handed bats (.935 OPS allowed). The Miami lineup skews to right-handed batters more than the average MLB club.
- Threw a season-high 112 pitches in his last start Friday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
Marlins at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Marlins 4
Money line
Cincinnati pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch when they logged a team 3.29 ERA from July 3-12, and its bullpen has carried some hidden upside value.
However, there is likely some regression likely to come due to the team’s relief corps overall 5.17 ERA — but you can still TAKE CINCINNATI (-140) in this series finale.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There is some upside to Ashcraft’s line, but peg an iffy Cincinnati relief corps as being heavily involved in this one and too risky to trust to pull off the victory by a multiple-run cushion.
Over/Under
Mixed signals here — some are favoring a high total and some are leaning toward pitching and defense. STEER CLEAR.
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