The Miami Marlins (46-51) and Cincinnati Reds (37-59) meet for the 3rd game of their 4-game series at Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: tied 1-1.
Miami edged out Cincinnati 2-1 Tuesday to tie the season series. The Marlins are 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Over that stretch, Miami hurlers have compiled a 2.89 ERA.
The Reds continue a home stand that opened last weekend with a 2-1 series win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last 9 home games.
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Marlins at Reds projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Garrett (2-3, 3.42 ERA) has made 9 starts this season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 47 1/3 IP.
- Owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over his last 4 starts.
- Has notched a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 89 career IP.
Castillo (3-4, 2.77 ERA) has authored a 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 78 IP over 13 starts.
- Making his first start of the second half.
- Has clocked a nifty 2.20 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 1.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last 4 turns.
- Dominates right-handed batters (.545 OPS allowed) and is facing a Miami club that generates a much-higher-than-average 78% of its plate appearances against righties from bats on the same side.
Marlins at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Reds -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Marlins 3
Money line
Cincinnati’s pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch in early July (3.29 ERA from July 3-12) and the Reds bullpen carries some hidden upside value. The back end of that ‘pen is in better shape than Miami’s heading into the 3rd game of this series.
Garrett’s last 4 starts have included 3 against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, both of which have bottom-feeder offenses.
However, the play here is a PASS unless you get Cincinnati at -145 or better.
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Run line/Against the spread
REDS -1.5 (+140) has the best value for this matchup.
Over/Under
Both starters have been missing bats and avoiding hard contact of late. However, the total would need to rise back to its earlier number of 8.5 and the Under would have some value at -120 or better on a warm, humid evening with an outward breeze at homer-happy Great American Ball Park.
PASS, but consider a line watch throughout the day.
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