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The Miami Heat (2-2) face the Washington Wizards (2-2) Saturday. Tip-off from Mexico, at the Arena Ciudad de Mexico, is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Wizards odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Heat won last season’s series 3-1
After dropping their first 2 games, the Wizards are back to .500 beating the Atlanta Hawks on the road and at home. Washington pulled away in the 4th quarter of their last game, dropping 40 points. They also outscored the Hawks 25-12 in fast-break points and won outright as home underdogs (+4.5) 133-120.
The Miami Heat hosted the New York Knicks, as a home underdog, on Wednesday. G Tyler Herro led the Heat with 34, making 8 of 13 3s, which was almost half of Miami’s total buckets from beyond the arc (17). But the Knicks’ new center Karl-Anthony Towns scored 44 to give Miami their 2nd home loss in 3 games, 116-107.
Heat at Wizards odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Wizards +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -9.5 (-110) | Wizards +9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Heat at Wizards key injuries
Heat
- C Kevin Love (personal reasons) out
- F Duncan Robinson (personal reasons) out
Wizards
- F Saddiq Bey (knee) out
- G Malcolm Brogdon (thumb) out
- F Kyle Kuzma (groin) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Wizards picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 112, Wizards 101
Moneyline
Miami’s offense, while ugly, protects the ball and spreads it around. The Heat have the highest assists per field goal made (0.73) and the second highest assist to turnover ratio (2.29).
Despite being the “road” team, the Heat won’t struggle with the fans with the game in Mexico. However, with the current lines I would PASS here and look to the spread.
Against the spread
While Miami has only covered once this season (1-3), and that time they were a road favorite. The Wizards, when giving a ton of points, have not kept it close. In their 2 losses, they were +14 and +9.5. In each of those games they lost by an average of 19.5 points.
While it’s a big spread, I still think the Heat will win and cover tonight.
LEAN HEAT -9.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Miami’s posts a bottom 5 shooting percentage this season (43.6%). Washington is slightly better (44.9%), but Miami’s top 5 defense will make scoring difficult. In a new venue, I see a low-scoring matchup. The total has already dropped 2 points Saturday morning, which means the books agree.
BET UNDER 222.5 (-105).
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