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The Miami Heat (32-19) stop by Scotiabank Arena Tuesday to play the Toronto Raptors (25-23) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Raptors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Both these teams played Monday and met this past weekend. A F Jimmy Butler-less Heat got smacked 122-92 by the Boston Celtics and the Raptors won at the Atlanta Hawks 106-100 as 2.5-point road favorites Monday.
Toronto upset Miami on the road Saturday 124-120 in triple overtime despite that it was without leading scorer PG Fred VanVleet. These teams are now split 1-1 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this regular season through two meetings in Miami.
The Heat are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS while the Raptors are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS over the last two weeks. Miami is 10th in adjusted net rating over that span, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and Toronto is 9th.
Heat at Raptors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Money line: Heat +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Raptors -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Heat +2.5 (-105) | Raptors -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Heat at Raptors key injuries
Heat (not officially submitted)
- SF Jimmy Butler (toe) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (personal) questionable
- C Omer Yurtseven (health and safety protocols) out
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
Raptors
- C Khem Birch (nose) out
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Heat at Raptors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Raptors 113, Miami 107
Money line
BET the RAPTORS (-150) for 1 unit because the Heat could be without three starters and Toronto just beat Miami without VanVleet.
In fact, Butler was sensational Saturday versus the Raptors (37-14-10 triple-double) and the Heat still lost.
Not only is Butler an All-NBA-caliber forward but Miami could also be without elite wing defender Tucker. These absences are concerning since Toronto is stacked at wing with Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes.
The Raptors also perform better on limited rest: Toronto is 5-3 SU (plus-3.1 margin of victory) and Miami is 2-6 SU (minus-2.3 margin of victory) when playing with no rest days.
Finally, Toronto has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over Miami in ball security, which surfaced in the Heat-Raptors game Saturday. Miami is 27th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), Toronto forces the highest rate of turnovers and the Raptors killed the Heat in this area Saturday. Toronto committed 7 fewer turnovers than Miami (23-16) and scored 7 more points off of turnovers.
BET the RAPTORS (-150) but if their money line goes north of -155 then I’d just lay the points with Toronto instead.
Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Raptors -2.5 (-120) since they are an NBA-best 6-2 ATS (plus-7.3 ATS margin) on the second of a back-to-back and are far healthier than the Heat at the moment.
I’m confident enough in Toronto that I’m willing to spend extra on the Raptors (-150) money line, but if that increases any further, I’d be comfortable laying up to 4 points with Toronto.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 209.5 (-112) for a quarter-unit, if at all, because the Toronto sides are sharper plays and both teams play at a bottom-three pace.
However, Miami is 7-1 O/U when playing on the second of a back-to-back with a plus-9.9 total margin and 9-4 O/U as a road underdog. Toronto is 11-7 O/U as a home favorite and 7-1 O/U in the last eight home games.
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