The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (3-2) head to the Wells Fargo Center Thursday to play No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers (2-3) in a crucial Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami routed Philly 120-85 Tuesday in Game 5. The Heat outperformed the Sixers in all “four factors” and outscored Philly in 3 of the 4 quarters (they tied in the 2nd quarter). The Sixers had a 14-15 assist-to-turnover ratio while the Heat had a 26-14 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Heat F Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the series, averaging 26.6 points on 53.4% shooting with 7.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and a plus-26 net rating.
The home team has won and covered the first 5 games of this series and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U).
Heat at 76ers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | 76ers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Heat +2.5 (-112) | 76ers -2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Heat at 76ers key injuries
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
- SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (knee) questionable
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable
[tipico]
Heat at 76ers picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 105, 76ers 102
Money line
LEAN HEAT (+110) since I like Miami plus the points, but can’t fully get there on the Heat’s ML because it’s not a big enough payout.
If Miami’s ML was north of +130, I’d take a stab but I’d rather grab the Heat’s spread and in-game the Sixers plus points for a “middle” if Miami goes up double digits.
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Against the spread
There’s value in the HEAT +2.5 (-112) because they are owning the 76ers -2.5 (-108) in turnover rate and rebounding. The most important thing in playoff basketball is accumulating possessions and Miami has a plus-24 rebound differential for the series and has committed 10 fewer turnovers.
Shooting comes and goes in basketball and these teams are tied in effective field goal shooting for the series. But, Miami was the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA during the regular season, 3rd in defensive turnover rate and had a much better rebounding rate than Philly.
Since the Heat should win the battle of possessions comfortably, I’ll take my chances that Miami’s elite 3-point shooters hit a few big shots in Philly Thursday and at least keep Game 6 close.
TAKE the HEAT +2.5 (-112).
Over/Under
PASS because my prediction aligns with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.
If anything, I “lean” Under 207.5 (-115) since it’s an elimination game for Philly and this series has a 92.3 possessions per 48-minute pace while the average NBA team is playing at a 95.8 for these playoffs. Furthermore, these teams have a combined 46-60 O/U record vs. teams with a winning record.
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