The Miami Heat (28-27) close out a four-game Western Conference road swing Friday against the Minnesota Timberwolves (14-42) at Target Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Timberwolves odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat were blown out in back-to-back games, first losing 106-86 to the Phoenix Suns Tuesday then falling 123-106 to the Denver Nuggets the next night.
Miami is seventh in the Eastern Conference, which is high enough for the postseason play-in tournament and is 6.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Toronto Raptors
The T-Wolves have lost two straight and six of their last eight games while going 3-4-1 against the spread) over the past two weeks.
Minnesota won both games and went 1-0-1 ATS against Miami last season including a 129-126 victory as 11.5-point road underdogs without C Karl-Anthony Towns.
Heat at Timberwolves: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Timberwolves +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat -6.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Timberwolves: Key injuries
Heat
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
- SF Andre Iguodala (hip) questionable
Timberwolves
- SG Malik Beasley (hamstring) out
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Heat at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 117, Timberwolves 113
Money line (ML)
PASS with a “lean” to the Timberwolves (+220) because I’m taking Minnesota plus the points and often will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when taking them to cover.
However, the Heat need to right the ship so they can move up the standings and avoid a play-in situation whereas the T-Wolves have nothing to play for and an argument could be made it’s better for them to lose than win.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-110) for .75 units even though there have been at least three instances this season where I’ve bet Minnesota as an underdog and it lost or pushed in overtime.
According to Pregame.com, more than 95% of the money is on the Heat, which is something the House expected because bookmakers haven’t moved the number from the opening line.
Apparently, the bookmakers are enticing more Miami money and I don’t want to fall into their trap.
Also, the T-Wolves have bounced back well from a loss recently and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss. The Heat are just 2-5-1 ATS when laying between 5-7.5 points.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 221.5 (-110) for a half-unit because I prefer the side more than the total in Heat-Timberwolves.
That being said, the Over cashed in four of Minnesota’s last five games, in five of seven for Miami and in four consecutive head-to-head meetings.
Towns should dominate the paint against an undersized Miami frontcourt, which should free up shooters for wide-open looks.
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