The Milwaukee Bucks (45-25) host the Miami Heat (39-31) Saturday in their regular-season home finale at Fiserv Forum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami has won four straight and seven of its last eight games (6-1-1 against the spread) with the latest being a 106-94 whooping of a fully loaded Philadelphia 76ers team Thursday.
The Heat have the same record as the fourth-place Atlanta Hawks and sixth-place New York Knicks but are the 5-seed due to the tiebreaker scenario.
Milwaukee has also won seven of its last eight games but has only covered in three of those contests. Two of those wins were against the Brooklyn Nets, who the Bucks are 1 game behind for second in the East.
These teams split a back-to-back in Miami December 29 and 30 with each team winning and covering a game.
Heat at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Bucks +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat +3 (-110) | Bucks -3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 230.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Heat at Bucks: Key injuries
Heat
- PG Kendrick Nunn (calf) questionable
Bucks
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
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Heat at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 118, Bucks 115
Money line (ML)
PASS because the line movement indicates Milwaukee is going to be resting its best players, but no official announcement has been made by the Bucks (+125).
As per usual, do not bet on this game until the official starting 5’s get announced because it would appear as though who is in Milwaukee’s starting 5 is based on the outcome of today’s Nets game against the Chicago Bulls.
If Brooklyn somehow loses against a Chicago team with nothing to play for then the Bucks are in the driver seat for the 2-seed since they own the tiebreaker with the Nets.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the BUCKS +3 (-110) for a tiny wager because at the moment we don’t know who’s playing, but if Milwaukee actually runs its best hoopers out there then we have an awesome number.
If you bet Milwaukee plus the points now (which you shouldn’t) and the backups get hot from three against a Miami defense that allows the second-most 3-point attempts per game then there are “middle” opportunities in-game.
For instance, BetMGM has live, in-game betting, and if the Bucks get out to a double-digit lead perhaps you can get the Heat’s in-game money line at near even-money for a freeroll at a scoop.
In this mock scenario, the Heat winning by two or one points would win the Bucks +3 and Miami’s in-game money line bet.
Over/Under (O/U)
Again, I can only slightly “LEAN” to the OVER 230.5 (-115) for a quarter unit because I’d assume the market’s preference with the Over is sharp money getting ahead of what could be a Milwaukee no-show tonight.
The Heat have the best offensive rating this month and if Giannis Antetokounmpo is given a rest day, then Miami’s offense should have a big night.
However, since the Heat’s defense allows opponents to chuck threes and there is a good chance Bucks’ backups will be firing from deep, Milwaukee can chip in on the Over cashing.
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