The Miami Heat visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday for Game 5 of their 1st round Eastern Conference playoff series. Miami leads the series 3-1. Tip from Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat took down the Bucks 119-114 at home Monday, covering as 7.5-point underdogs and taking a 3-1 series lead. F Jimmy Butler carried the load with 56 points on 19-of-28 shooting and going 15 of 18 from the free throw line. C Bam Adebayo was 2nd on the team with 15 points.
Milwaukee was up by as many as 15 points at one point during the game before Butler took over. C Brook Lopez scored a team-high 36 points to go along with 11 rebounds while F Giannis Antetokounmpo racked in a triple-double with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists. The Bucks outscored the Heat 54-40 in the paint as well but were outscored 22-13 on fast break points.
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Heat at Bucks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Bucks -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +11.5 (-110) | Bucks -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Bucks key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (hamstring) probable
Bucks
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Bucks picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 117, Heat 109
Moneyline
PASS.
Barring another outlier performance from Butler, the Bucks (-650) should easily win this matchup at home. However, there is no profit to be made on the Milwaukee moneyline at these odds.
Against the spread
LEAN BUCKS -11.5 (-110).
With their backs against the ropes and returning to their home court, expect the Bucks to set the tone early and never look back. They took an 11-point lead into the 4th quarter of Game 4 before losing all momentum and allowing Miami back into the game. Milwaukee did a good job of shutting down Miami outside of Butler, as the next-best shooting performance was 6 of 16 from the field. Other than Butler’s 18 free throw attempts, the Bucks allowed just 7 trips to the charity stripe.
The Bucks are 24-19 against the spread (ATS) at home this season while the Heat are just 16-25-1 ATS on the road.
Over/Under
BET OVER 219.5 (-110).
The Over has hit in each of the first 4 games of this series — by an average of more than 22 points per game. Of the 8 total 1st round playoff series, this series ranks 3rd in total pace with 101.63 showcasing these teams’ ability to push the ball which results in scoring more.
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