The Miami Heat (4-1) visits the Memphis Grizzlies (3-2) Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at FedExForum. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami smoked the Charlotte Hornets 114-99 as 7-point home favorites Friday. The Heat have won and covered their last three games and are currently the best shooting team in the Association.
Memphis rallied back from an early double-digit deficit to upset the Golden State Warriors 104-101 in overtime Friday. Ja Morant finished with 30 points on 50 percent shooting with 7 rebounds 5 assists and 4 steals. However, Memphis has the second-worst defensive three-point percentage in the NBA.
The Grizzlies won and covered vs. the Heat in both regular-season meetings last year. Each victory was by at least 12 points and both teams were mostly at full health in those contests.
Heat at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Grizzlies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +2.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Heat at Grizzlies key injuries
Heat
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Grizzlies
- SF Kyle Anderson (calf) questionable
- SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out
Heat at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 107, Grizzlies 102
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Heat (+110) since I “like” Miami plus the points. However, my buy-price for Miami’s money line in this spot is north of +125, so I’ll just take the points with the Heat.
Against the spread
There are just too many things favoring the HEAT +2.5 (-112) to not take the points. First of all, Memphis averages the fourth-most paint points per game, but Miami allows the fourth-fewest paint points per game.
Second, the Heat score the second-most fastbreak points per game and the seventh-best points per position in transition.
Whereas the Grizzlies allow the fifth-most fastbreak points per game and has the third-worst defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in transition.
Also, Memphis runs the eighth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll action for the ballhandler But, Miami’s defense allows the third-best points per possession vs. pick-and-roll offense for the ballhandler.
Furthermore, the Grizzlies are missing a key backcourt contributor in Brooks and first-year big Steven Adams doesn’t use his size to dominate offensively as former Memphis big Jonas Valančiūnas does.
Finally, I’d wait on betting Miami plus the points here because a vast majority of the cash is on Memphis (according to Pregame.com) and if that trend continues the HEAT +2.5 (-112) could get above 3 or higher.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 215.5 (-108) for 1 unit because there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Under and the Heat don’t shoot it well enough to take advantage of the Grizzlies’ poor 3-point defense.
For instance, the Heat-Grizzlies total opened at 217 but has been steamed down to the current price by heavy Under action. Plus Memphis has the third-worst defensive eFG% but Miami ranks 23rd in offensive eFG%.
Lastly, even though Miami is very efficient in transition and the opposite is true for Memphis’s defense, the Heat play at the 19th-fastest pace and the Grizzlies’ pace ranks 21st. Fewer possessions mean fewer points, usually.
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