The Miami Heat (7-2) begin a five-game Western Conference road trip with a 9 p.m. ET tip-off against the Denver Nuggets (5-4) Monday at Ball Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami has won six of its last seven games, including the latest being a 118-115 win over the Utah Jazz as a 1-point home underdog Saturday. The Heat are 7-2 ATS and 4-5 O/U with the second-best net rating in the Association.
Denver eked out a 95-94 home win over the Houston Rockets Saturday as a 11.5-point favorite. The Nuggets lost their previous two games, both to the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver is 3-6 ATS and 1-8 O/U with the 14th-best net rating.
The Nuggets won and covered in both meetings with the Heat last season.
Heat at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nuggets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Nuggets +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Nuggets key injuries
Heat
- None
Nuggets
- PG Monte Morris (knee) probable
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Heat at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 104, Nuggets 98
Money line
“LEAN” to the HEAT (-125) because they are much healthier and playing better basketball at the moment.
Nuggets’ reigning MVP Nikola Jokic just doesn’t have enough help. Porter was having a terrible season before being sidelined by an injury and the decline from Jamal Murray to Morris is massive.
The Heat have the highest scoring bench in the league (43.8 points per game) with the second-best +/-, while Denver’s bench scores the fourth-fewest PPG (27.3) with the third-worst +/-.
Also, this is a much better spot for Miami than Denver. The Nuggets are just 3-7 overall as home underdogs since the beginning of 2019 and the Heat are 23-16 overall as road favorites.
Against the spread
PASS since Miami’s money line is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat -1.5 (-112).
Plus, I only “lean” to Miami winning outright so if the Heat’s money line gets to -140, I’d just pass on the side and focus on the total.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 204.5 (-110) for a three-fourths unit since this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the cash is on the Under while close to 60% of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
However, I hesitate to put a full unit on the UNDER 204.5 (-110) because we are getting to the party a little late. The game opened with a 207-point total but has been steamed down to the current number.
There’s a decent amount of basketball-based logic supporting the Under here. Both squads play at a bottom-10 pace and rank in the top 4 of defensive efficiency.
The Heat have the third-best offensive FT/FGA rate but the Nuggets have the sixth-best defensive FT/FGA rate.
Also, Miami attempts the fourth-highest frequency of mid-range field goals (according to CleaningTheGlass.com). But Denver has the sixth-best defensive field-goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.
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