The Dallas Mavericks (4-2) host the Miami Heat (5-1) Tuesday at the American Airlines Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami is a winner of four straight games with the latest being a 129-103 beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies Saturday as a 3.5-point road underdog.
Heat wing Jimmy Butler is currently third in PER (30.3) while averaging 25.3 points per game (PPG), 7.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Miami is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and 2-4 Over/Under (O/U).
Dallas held off the Sacramento Kings 105-99 Sunday, barely covering as a 4.5-point home favorite. The Mavs have won four of their last five games, but are just 2-4 ATS and 0-6 O/U with the 23rd-ranked net rating in the Association.
The Mavs won and covered in both regular-season meetings with the Heat last year, the first of which was against a Miami team at full health (New Year’s Day, 2021).
Heat at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -145 (bet $145 to win $105) | Mavericks +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -2.5 (-115) | Mavericks +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Heat at Mavericks key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
- SG Max Struss (knee) out
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) out
- PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
- C Maxi Kleber (back) out
Heat at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 107, Heat 101
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Mavericks (+120) because Dallas +2.5 has a lot more value. If Dallas’s spread drops to 2 or fewer points then I’d bet a half-unit on the Mavericks’ money line. At the moment, let’s just stick with Dallas plus the points.
Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the contrarian mindset has been profitable thus far in the NBA. Fading the more popular side over the past five days is 24-13 ATS (64.8% cover rate).
Nearly three-fourths of the market is betting the Heat according to pregame.com. Wait until closer to tip-off before making a wager in case there’s a better price on the Mavs.
This feels like a buy-low spot for Dallas and Miami is due for some regression. According to ShotQuality.com, the Mavs have the fourth-best shot quality per possession and the Heat are ranked 16th.
Miami also allows the most 3-point attempts per game in the league so Dallas will have opportunities to break out of its shooting slump.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-115) for a tiny wager — if at all — because Miami is first in defensive rating, Dallas is 10th in defensive rating and there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Under. The Heat-Mavericks total opened at 212.5 but has been steamed down by the market.
Also, the Heat thrive on getting easy buckets that I don’t think will be there against the Mavs.
Miami ranks fourth in fastbreak points per game and ninth in points off of turnovers per game, while Dallas ranks fifth in fastbreak points allowed per game and first in points off turnovers allowed per game.
However, since we are getting to the party late and I much prefer the Mavs plus the points and I’d only put a small bet on the UNDER 210.5 (-115).
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