The Charlotte Hornets (31-32) host the Southeast Division rival Miami Heat (34-30) Sunday at Spectrum Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Hornets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami has won back-to-back games, three of its last four and six of its last eight games while going 5-2-1 against the spread.
The Heat are the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference and are 2.5 games in front of the eighth-place Hornets. Miami trails the 6-seed Boston Celtics with the same record due to losing a tiebreaker.
Charlotte is 4-4 straight up and ATS in its last eight games with three losses coming against the red-hot New York Knicks, 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks and at the Celtics.
The Hornets are going for a three-game season sweep of the Heat. Charlotte won and covered three in a row against Miami dating back to last March.
Heat at Hornets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Hornets +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat -5.5 (-110) | Hornets +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Heat at Hornets: Key injuries
Heat
- PG Goran Dragic (back) questionable
- SG Tyler Herro (foot) out
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
Hornets
- PG Devonte’ Graham (knee) questionable
- SF Gordon Hayward (foot) out
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Heat at Hornets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Hornets 115, Heat 110
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the HORNETS (+180) for a quarter unit if at all because I “like” Charlotte plus the points and see a little value with sprinkling on the underdog’s money line.
Charlotte is 17-9 with the highest net rating, second-highest assist-to-turnover rate and highest effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) in clutch situations. Miami is 20th in clutch net rating with the second-worst eFG%.
Again, Charlotte plus the points is the better play but the HORNETS (+180) are worth a tiny wager to win.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET HORNETS +5.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Charlotte’s money line.
I get the argument the Hornets won’t complete a three-game sweep of the Heat but Charlotte just matches up well with Miami and there aren’t 6 points of difference between the two sides.
The Heat rely on getting to the foul line (seventh in FTA/FG rate) but the Hornets have the third-best defensive FTA/FG rate.
Both teams turn the ball over at a top-10 rate but each is top-10 in defensive turnover rate. Also, Charlotte has the third-lowest defensive rebounding rate and Miami has the second-lowest offensive rebounding rate.
If the Hornets can keep this game close, I really like their chances at stealing the games because of advanced metrics in clutch situations.
The Hornets are 11-6-1 ATS as a home underdog and 7-2 ATS against division opponents. The Heat are 3-8-2 ATS when laying between 5-7 points and 2-9 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
BET 1 unit on the HORNETS +5.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 211.5 (-115) for a half unit because Charlotte’s offense will pick up the pace with PG LaMelo Ball back in the lineup and the defense suffers if Graham can’t play.
Furthermore, the Heat and Hornets went Over the total in each of their past four meetings and Miami has played to the Over in five straight.
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