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The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics meet Wednesday for Game 5 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference 1st-round series, which Boston leads 3-1. Tip-off from TD Garden is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Celtics odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Boston routed Miami 102-88 in Monday’s Game 4 of the series while covering as a 10.5-point road favorite. G Derrick White dropped a game-high 38 points on 15-of-26 shooting in the win. Boston also hit 14 deep balls, while the Heat hit only 9. After hitting 23 from deep in their lone win in the series (Game 2), the Heat have been held to single-digit 3’s in back-to-back outings.
Miami’s offense continues to struggle as it has been held to under 100 points in each of its 3 losses this series — it was held under 90 points in the last 2 games.
Heat at Celtics odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | Celtics -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +13.5 (-110) | Celtics -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 199.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Celtics key injuries
Heat
- F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
- G Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) out
- F Duncan Robinson (back) available
- G Terry Rozier (neck) out
Celtics
- C Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Celtics picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 105, Heat 90
Moneyline
PASS.
The Celtics should pick up the win and end this series, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as -1000 favorites. Back the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
LEAN CELTICS -13.5 (-110).
Boston has covered the spread in 3 of the 4 games this series, including each of the last 2 games. The Celtics are also 4-2 ATS in their last 6 matchups vs. Miami.
This is only a lean because Miami is still a very good team and has proven in this series that its offense can come alive. Miami has also given Boston a lot of trouble in recent history, especially in the playoffs.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 199.5 (-110).
The Under has hit in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games, including in 3 of the 4 games this series. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 Miami-Boston matchups overall, and 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to May, 2023.
An Under number this low is always risky in today’s NBA, but Miami’s offense has not looked good all series and both teams are very good defensively, making this play the best bet in the contest.
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