The Miami Heat (9-11) head to State Farm Arena Sunday to take on the Atlanta Hawks (11-8). Tip is set for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hawks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat beat the Washington Wizards 110-107 on Friday, pushing as 3-point favorites. Miami is just 6-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. It is 1-7 straight up on the road.
The Heat have 6 players averaging in double figures, led by F Jimmy Butler‘s 20.9 points per game, so it is a full team approach offensively w and that will be needed Sunday with Butler out.
The Hawks are 8-11 ATS and are a solid 7-3 straight up at home this season. They failed to cover as 7-point home favorites in a 128-122 loss to the Houston Rockets on Friday. The Hawks have covered just 4 of their last 10.
Despite shooting the league’s 20th-best field goal percentage, the Hawks strength is scoring, ranking 9th in points per game. G Trae Young leads Atlanta, averaging 28.6 per game.
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Heat at Hawks odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Hawks -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-105) | Hawks -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Heat at Hawks key injuries
Heat
- F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
- G Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
- F Max Strus (shoulder) questionable
Hawks
- G Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
- C Clint Capela (dental) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Hawks picks and predictions
Prediction
Hawks 115, Heat 110
Moneyline
PASS.
The Heat have been awful on the road while Atlanta is 7-3 at home. No moneyline value makes sense to play here.
Against the spread
LEAN HEAT +5.5 (-105).
Despite electric performances from Young (44 points) and G Dejounte Murray (39), the Hawks lost to Houston. They are 1-2 in their last 3 and 1-2 ATS in their last 3 home games.
The Hawks also aren’t a great shooting team which bodes well for Miami because it allowed just the 12th-best shooting percentage from deep. The Hawks have the league’s lowest turnover rate, but the Heat also rank top 10.
Miami should have the tools to defend Young well, allowing the 7th-fewest points per game this season. The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5, so they are playing at a higher level as well.
Over/Under
BET OVER 224.5 (-105).
The Heat have gone over the projected total in their last 2 and in 7 of their last 10. Miami is 11-9 O/U this season. Atlanta is 5-5 O/U in its last 10 and 4-3 O/U over its last 7.
The Hawks like to run, sitting 5th in pace. With Butler sidelined, the Heat may be more prone to run and less dominant defensively.
Expect a high-scoring battle as neither team turnover the ball over which will equate to more shots. Given the tempo of Atlanta, points should come in bunches.
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