The Miami Heat (2-0) visit State Farm Arena Friday to take on the Atlanta Hawks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Heat are coming into this game after taking a commanding 2-0 lead, winning both their home games. Miami defeated Atlanta 115-91 Sunday and 115-105 Tuesday.
Atlanta SG Bogdan Bogdanović (29 points) and PG Trae Young (25 points) combined for 54 points in Game 2 that helped keep things close. The Hawks were still just 12-for-40 from deep, far under their season average.
The Heat were led by a dominant effort from former All-Star SF Jimmy Butler. He scored 45 in Game 2 while no other Heat player had over 15.
The top-seeded Heat covered the spread as favorites in the first two games and are favored in Friday’s Game 3. The Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive rating in the regular season, while Miami sat 4th in defense, the clear strength for both teams.
Heat at Hawks odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Hawks +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Hawks +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Heat at Hawks key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) questionable
- SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
- PF Markieff Morris (hip) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable
Hawks
- C Clint Capela (knee) out
- SG Lou Williams (back) out
[tipico]
Heat at Hawks picks and predictions
Prediction
Hawks 114, Heat 110
Money line
BET HAWKS (+102).
A plus-money value on the Hawks here is attractive, and here’s why. It’s a night-and-day difference for Atlanta at home versus on the road.
Atlanta is 28-14 straight up (SU) and 24-18 against the spread (ATS) at home. Superstar Young averages 30.2 points per game (PPG) at home, 3.7 PPG better than his road average. He also shoots 3.9% better at home (48.0% to 44.1%).
Atlanta was 1-3 SU/ATS against Miami during the regular season but was 1-1 SU/ATS in the home games.
Adebayo has been a key standout for the Heat during the season. With him potentially not at full strength, the Hawks should be able to take advantage, and I expect Atlanta to come out on top in Game 3.
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Against the spread
PASS.
The Hawks haven’t lost by a single point all season, so I’ll take their plus-money odds instead of getting just 1.5 points on the spread.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 221.5 (-108).
The Under is 2-0 so far this series, but as noted, Atlanta is far better at home. During the regular season, it had a 117.7 offensive rating a home. The Hawks are 23-19 O/U at home this season.
The Heat, despite their defensive strength, are actually 49-35 O/U. Miami is the second-best Over road team in the NBA at 26-15 (Minnesota is 31-12).
Combine it all, and I prefer the OVER here.
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