The closer we get to draft night, the more questions surrounding trading picks come up. With Miami being the team that has had it’s eyes on former Alabama star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, do they need to trade up from the No. 5 overall pick in order to secure him?
The short answer to this is no.
There are plenty of theories that are centered around surprising picks and interesting trades in order for teams to obtain the 2018 Heisman finalist, but the one that is most likely to occur is Miami drafting Tagovailoa at No. 5.
Going in order, lets first analyze why Washington won’t take Tagovailoa at No. 2.
It has been rumored that Ron Rivera will want to bring in his own players to create his own original system in his first year of coaching in Washington. While they did interview quarterbacks at the NFL combine, it is likely that he will want to see what Haskins can do as a full-time starter.
Kalyn Kahler of Sports Illustrated reported that a source close to Washington’s owner, Dan Snyder, claimed the Tua rumors were “just a lot of smoke.”
Plus, Washington has other needs to address. They will likely take the role everyone expects them to and select Ohio State’s Chase Young.
Moving on to the No. 3 overall pick, the Detroit Lions.
Is Matthew Stafford the guy to take Detroit to a Super Bowl? Maybe. Is he the guy Detroit’s front office thinks can get it done? Yes.
Kyle Meinke of MLive.com argues that while Stafford has recently been bitten by the injury bug, Tagovailoa has been as well. Meinke also claims that Stafford’s recent play is a sign that brighter days are soon to come for the Lions.
He writes, “Would the Lions really use their best resource to try to replace their best player from a year ago with a quarterback who is entering the league with his own injury concerns — and may not play until 2021 anyway, when Detroit is facing a win-now mandate in 2020?”
So it’s not looking like the Lions will draft Tagovailoa, but will someone else take him with the No. 3 overall pick?
This is where the Los Angeles Chargers come into play.
They are in an interesting position as they pick at No. 6, only one behind Miami. Right now it looks as if they will be selecting Oregon’s Justin Herbert to be their future signal caller.
There are only two possible scenarios in which Chargers fans wake up on Apr. 24 knowing Tua Tagovailoa will soon wear a Los Angeles uniform: the Dolphins pass on him or they trade up with Detroit.
It’s not certain Miami will draft Tagovailoa, but if he’s there, it’ll be hard to pass on him – especially since they are still receiving flack for not drafting Drew Brees back in 2001.
There’s no telling what Detroit would ask for in return for the pick, but Gavino Borquez of ChargersWire compares this hypothetical trade to that of the New York Jets’ trade from No. 6 to No. 3 with the Colts in 2018.
In that trade, the Jets gave up four picks, their No. 6 overall, two second-round picks and the following year’s second-round pick.
“Los Angeles doesn’t have two second-round selections this year like the Jets did a couple of years back,” writes Borquez, “which means that it would cost No. 6, No. 37 and most likely an early pick in 2021.”
That may be too much for the Chargers to give up, especially since they are also trying to rebuild, much like the Dolphins. Unless they get a good deal from Detroit, it may not be worth it.
So whether one looks at Washington not needing a quarterback, the Lions looking to stick with Stafford or the Chargers lack of draft capital for a trade, it’s clear the Miami Dolphins are probably going to be able to win the ‘Tank for Tua’ sweepstakes at No. 5.
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