The Miami Dolphins (8-7) and New England Patriots (7-8) are both fighting for their playoff lives this week as they square off at Gillette Stadium in Week 17. Kickoff on Sunday will be at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Dolphins are stumbling into the final weeks of the season, losing each of their last 4 games after starting the year 8-3. The playoffs are still within reach, however. If the Dolphins win their last 2 games, they’ll clinch a playoff berth, which is the simplest scenario for this team entering Week 17. The offense has been inconsistent at best, scoring between 17 and 29 points during their 4-game losing streak; Miami ranks 9th in total points (365) this season.
The Patriots are in even worse shape than the Dolphins, sitting at 7-8, but they can also get into the playoffs by simply winning their final 2 games of the season. They’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 games, with their only win during that stretch coming against the Arizona Cardinals. Three of their last 4 losses have come by 7 points or fewer, so they’ve kept things close.
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Dolphins at Patriots odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Patriots -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +2.5 (-110) | Patriots -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Dolphins at Patriots key injuries
Dolphins
- OT Terron Armstead (toe, pec, knee, hip) questionable
- OLB Bradley Chubb (ankle, hand) questionable
- OT Eric Fisher (calf) questionable
- CB Xavien Howard (knee) questionable
- OT Brandon Shell (shoulder) probable
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) out
Patriots
- TE Hunter Henry (knee) questionable
- CB Jack Jones (knee) out
- CB Marcus Jones (concussion) out
- CB Jonathan Jones (chest) questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (groin) questionable
- WR DeVante Parker (concussion) out
- TE Jonnu Smith (concussion) out
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) probable
- WR Tyquan Thornton (knee) questionable
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Dolphins at Patriots picks and predictions
Prediction
Patriots 20, Dolphins 16
Moneyline
Tagovailoa’s absence from this game makes it even tougher to pick because the Dolphins will instead have QB Teddy Bridgewater under center. Even though he’s an experienced player who’s started 64 games in his career, he threw 3 INTs in 2 games this season, both of which were losses by Miami.
As unimpressive as the Patriots’ offense has been this year, this is the type of game Bill Belichick wins with solid coaching. I’ll take the PATRIOTS (-145) to win outright at home against their division rivals.
Against the spread
The Patriots likely wouldn’t be favored if Tagovailoa were playing in this one, but with Tua out, New England looks like the better team, especially at home in December.
The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Dolphins at home, which is a trend I think continues this week. Bet the PATRIOTS -2.5 (-110) to cover at Gillette.
Over/Under
These are inconsistent offenses led by underwhelming quarterbacks. The Patriots defense is one of the best in the league, however, and should give Bridgewater a lot of trouble if the coverage can hold up despite some starters likely missing from the secondary.
While the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the 6th-most points in the league, QB Mac Jones is having a rough year and won’t lead many touchdown drives. Bet the UNDER 41 (-112).
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