The Miami Dolphins visit Gillette Stadium Sunday to tangle with the New England Patriots in their regular-season opener. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Miami improved by five wins from 2019 to 2020 with a 10-6 record in head coach Brian Flores’ second season and tied the Buffalo Bills with the highest regular-season cover rate at 11-5 against the spread.
New England finished just 7-9 last season and wound up selecting QB Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The 2020 season was the Patriots’ first sub-.500 campaign since head coach Bill Belichick’s first year on the job in 2000.
The reasons are obvious: It was the first season in the post-Tom Brady era and the Patriots had more than double the next-most adjusted games lost due to COVID-19 last year, according to Football Outsiders.
Also see: NFL team win totals
Dolphins at Patriots odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dolphins +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Patriots -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3.5 (-108) | Patriots -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Patriots key injuries
Dolphins
- WR Will Fuller (suspended) out
- WR Preston Williams (foot) questionable
Patriots
- WR Nelson Algholor (ankle) questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (ankle) questionable
- CB Stephon Gilmore (quadriceps) out
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Dolphins at Patriots odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Dolphins 23, Patriots 20
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to the DOLPHINS (+160) for a quarter unit, if at all, because Miami plus the points is a wiser wager but there’s enough value with the underdog to sprinkle some change on the money line.
This game opened with New England laying just -125 on the money line before the Patriots were dropped 75 cents on the dollar.
Essentially, my idea is to fade that line movement because it’s due to New England making Jones the starting quarterback against one of the best defensive head coaches in the league.
New England’s price is increasing because the media is chirping about the more popular team. There’s no way the Patriots should be this heavy of a favorite starting a rookie in Week 1 with mediocre receivers.
Also see: Week 1 staff picks
Against the spread
Definitely BET the DOLPHINS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of Miami’s money line as a fade against a lopsided betting market that has pushed this line past the key number of 3.
Furthermore, over the past five seasons, road underdogs are 14-7-1 ATS against divisional foes in Week 1. Miami is also tied for the second-best cover rate in division games (8-4 ATS) since hiring Flores.
Lastly, I’m higher than the market on Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense in his second season.
Tua came into his rookie season rehabbing a dislocated hip injury he suffered in college, didn’t get the benefit of a normal offseason due to the COVID pandemic and played in an offense built for former Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh, and the Dolphins wide receiver room had the most adjusted games lost due to injury last season.
Over/Under
Dolphins-Patriots has all the makings of a low-scoring game with two young quarterbacks going against defensive wizards at head coach.
However, the market feels the same way and has hammered the Under so much so that sportsbooks have moved the total down from the 46.5-point opener to the listed number.
I hate following a crowd in sports betting and we are getting the worst of the number. PASS ON THE TOTAL.
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