The Miami Hurricanes (6-1) head to Blacksburg to play the Virginia Tech Hokies (4-3) in an ACC rivalry game Saturday at Lane Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we analyze the Miami-Virginia Tech college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Hurricanes are No. 9 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Miami at Virginia Tech: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Miami +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Virginia Tech -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Miami +2 (-110) | Virginia Tech -2 (-110)
- Over/Under: 67.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Miami at Virginia Tech: Three things to know
- Miami struggled as a double-digit favorite but pulled out a 44-41 win over the NC State Wolfpack last week, despite trailing by a touchdown entering the fourth quarter. Hurricanes QB D’Eriq King was marvelous, completing 31 of 41 passes for 430 yards and five touchdowns while adding 105 rushing yards.
- Virginia Tech was upset 38-35 as a 17-point home favorite by the FCS Liberty Flames last week. Liberty beat Virginia Tech in its own game and outrushed the Hokies, 249-201. Virginia Tech star RB Khalil Herbert was sidelined with injury after the opening kickoff and is questionable to play against Miami.
- Last season, the Hokies went into the Orange Bowl and beat the Hurricanes 42-35 as 14-point underdogs. QB Hendon Hooker balled up the U, as he threw three touchdown passes and ran for 76 yards with one score.
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Miami at Virginia Tech: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Virginia Tech 33, Miami 27
Money line (ML)
They say sharps don’t look at team rankings, or even records for that matter, when handicapping college football games. So let’s try to ignore Miami’s (+105) No. 9 ranking and try to figure out why Virginia Tech is -125 on the money line.
This is a get-right game for Virginia Tech’s defensive line. Miami’s offensive line is 103rd in line yards, 97th in stuff rate and 86th in sack rate, according to Football Outsiders. Also, the U has been tackled for a loss 61 times while Virginia Tech’s defense has the 11th-most TFLs (54) and the 19th best sack rate.
The Hokies do a good job of forcing turnovers (plus-6 in turnover differential) and Miami is the second-most penalized team in the ACC so it might not be a foregone conclusion the Hurricanes pile on points.
Furthermore, the betting data for this game gives me another reason to like VIRGINIA TECH (-125). The Hokies side has 57% of the money wagered but 83% of the total bets are placed on Miami, according to Pregame.com. What that says is the sharps are putting big bets on Virginia Tech’s money line but the public is on the U. Let’s roll with the sharps and the Hokies.
Against the spread (ATS)
- Miami +2 (-110)
- Virginia Tech -2 (-110)
I am going to PASS ON THE SPREAD and just roll with the money line wager. There are a couple of trends to reinforce our Virginia Tech money line bet. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six Miami-Virginia Tech games and the Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
Over/Under (O/U)
The market is hammering the Over so hard the total has moved from the opener of 62.5 to the current price of 67.5. The Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings and 7-0 in the Hurricanes’ last seven games as road underdogs.
I only LEAN UNDER 67.5 (-110) because both offenses average at least 34 points per game and their combined Over/Under record is 9-5 O/U this year.
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