The Memphis Grizzlies (5-3) travel to the nation’s capital Friday to play the Washington Wizards (5-3) at Capital One Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Memphis has won three of its past four games including victories in back-to-meetings with the Denver Nuggets earlier this week. The Grizzlies are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) with four upsets as underdogs.
Washington has lost back-to-back games to the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks entering Friday. The two things that stand out the most for the Wizards are their third-ranked defensive 3-point percentage and second-best offensive turnover rate. Washington is 5-3 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
The Grizzlies pummeled the Wizards by double digits in both regular-season meetings last year. Memphis guard Ja Morant dominated Washington last season, averaging 28.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game with a plus-23 net rating in both meetings.
Grizzlies at Wizards odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Wizards -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +1.5 (-110) | Wizards -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Grizzlies at Wizards key injuries
Grizzlies
- SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out
Wizards
- PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
- PF Davis Bertans (ankle) out
- C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
Grizzlies at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 115, Wizards 110
Money line
BET the GRIZZLIES (+100) for 1 unit because I have a lot more faith in Memphis being able to execute its offense than Washington.
The Grizzlies have the highest frequency of field goal attempts in transition, take the fourth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and the sixth-most shot attempts off of screens, according to ShotQuality.com.
Whereas Washington’s defense ranks 21st in efficiency vs. transition offense, 29th in efficiency vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 22nd in efficiency vs. field goals off screens.
The Wizards attempt the second-highest volume of short-mid-range field goals and the eighth-highest volume of all mid-range shots (according to CleaningTheGlass.com). However, the Grizzlies have the seventh-best defensive field goal shooting vs. mid-range attempts.
Since Memphis drafted Morant in 2019, the Grizzlies have played well againnst Eastern Conference teams. The Grizzlies are 34-25 overall vs. the East with a plus-2.1 margin of victory over that span. While the Wizards are just 25-32 overall with a minus-3.4 margin of victory over the same timeframe.
Against the spread
PASS since Memphis’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Grizzlies +1.5 (-110), which doesn’t offer much insurance anyhow.
However, money is coming in on Washington and I always wait until the final injury report before making an NBA regular-season wager. Let’s wait until closer to tip-off and take the Grizzlies if their spread goes to 3 or more points.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-108) because the totals of the two Grizzlies-Wizards meetings last season were 238 and 238.5.
Sure, Unders are cashing like crazy thus far in the NBA regular season, but there’s going to be a regression back to the mean, and the 18-point gulf between this Grizzlies-Wizards meeting and their contests last season is too wide.
Washington has the second-highest offensive FT/FGA rate and Memphis has the second-worst defensive effective field goal shooting.
Early money steamed the Grizzlies-Wizards total down from the 224.5-point opener. This has turned into a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game as nearly 70% of the cash is on the Over while more than 60% of the bets placed are on the Under according to pregame.com.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
My favorite play in this game is Memphis’s money line but there’s value in the OVER 220.5 (-108).
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