The 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies head to Salt Lake City Sunday to start their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the 1-seed Utah Jazz in Vivint Arena. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Jazz odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Memphis clinched its playoff berth by winning back-to-back play-in games against the San Antonio Spurs (100-94 as 4.5-point home favorites) and at the Golden State Warriors (117-112 in overtime as 4.5 points road dogs).
Utah jumped to first place in the West Feb. 2 and hasn’t relinquished that spot. The Jazz have battled injuries to their backcourt to end the regular season but were 7-3 in their last 10 (5-5 against the spread).
The Grizzlies covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Jazz but lost all three outright.
Utah All-Star Donovan Mitchell went off vs. Memphis this season, averaging 35.0 points per game on 77.3% true shooting (.600/.714/1.00) and 6.5 assists per game with a 144 offensive rating.
Grizzlies at Jazz: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +333 (bet $100 to win $333) | Jazz -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies +8.5 (-105) | Jazz -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Grizzlies at Jazz: Key injuries
Grizzlies
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Jazz
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
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Grizzlies at Jazz: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Grizzlies 115, Jazz 110
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the GRIZZLIES (+333) for tiny wager if at all since I “like” Memphis plus the points because the Grizzlies are more ramped up for playoff basketball and getting Mitchell back could slow the Jazz down temporarily.
The Grizzlies played in two meaningful games earlier this week just to get here, and you could argue the Jazz hasn’t played an important game since perhaps their road game against second-place Phoenix Suns April 30.
Also, Mitchell has missed the previous 16 games and will most likely be on some sort of minutes restriction or load management plan.
Two of the Grizzlies-Jazz meetings this season were decided by four or less points. So if Mitchell is less than 100% and not getting buckets, Memphis could steal Game 1 à la Dallas Mavericks over the Los Angeles Clippers Saturday.
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Against the spread (ATS)
If you aren’t feeling Memphis winning this game outright then at least consider BETTING the GRIZZLIES +8.5 (-105) for 1.25 units.
Ja Morant‘s incredible performance in Memphis’ victory over Golden State could be a preview of things to come. Morant is a franchise building block and a nightmare matchup for every guard in the Association.
Furthermore, in the three Grizzlies-Jazz meeting this season, Morant put up 26.7 points per game on 64.5% true shooting (.563/.400/.692) with 7.3 assists per game.
Finally, Memphis grinds games out, does really well in the miscellaneous categories and a couple of those areas are weaknesses for Utah.
For example, the Grizzlies score the most paint points per game and the third-most points off of turnovers while the Jazz are 22nd in paint points allowed per game and 20th in opponent’s points off turnovers.
Jazz big Rudy Gobert is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year but Memphis big Jonas Valančiūnas plays well vs. Gobert, and I’ll take his offense over Gobert’s defense in this series.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-115) for a half unit because Memphis recently playing in big games will remove its postseason jitters, and I think the Grizzlies push the pace early and often in Game 1.
One of the drawbacks sometimes to Memphis’ aggressive style can be overextending on defense and getting caught out of position. Utah’s 3-point attack will feast if this happens and get buckets for stretches.
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