The Milwaukee Bucks (27-19) host the Memphis Grizzlies (31-15) Wednesday at the Fiserv Forum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis has won 12 of its last 13 games, including most recently against the Chicago Bulls, 119-106 as an 8.5-point home favorite Monday. The Grizzlies are 30-16 against the spread (ATS) with a 22-23-1 Over/Under (O/U) record.
Milwaukee dropped its fourth game in the last five outings Monday by getting upset 121-114 by the Atlanta Hawks as a 5.5-point road favorite. The Bucks are 20-26 ATS and 19-27 O/U.
The Grizzlies have beaten the Bucks in two of their last three meetings and covered in all three.
In Memphis’ 128-115 victory over Milwaukee in April 2021, the Grizzlies’ top-four scorers were SG Grayson Allen and C Jonas Valanciunas (both no longer with the team) and SG Desmond Bane and SF Dillon Brooks (both are currently sidelined with injuries).
Grizzlies at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Bucks -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Grizzlies +6.5 (-115) | Bucks -6.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 228.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Grizzlies at Bucks key injuries
Grizzlies
- SF Kyle Anderson (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Desmond Bane (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Dillon Brooks (ankle) out
- PG Tyus Jones (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Killian Tillie (health and safety protocols) out
Bucks
- PG Jrue Holiday (ankle) questionable
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Grizzlies at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 116, Grizzlies 107
Money line
PASS.
I like Milwaukee to handle business here, but the -270 price is far too expensive for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.
Against the spread
LEAN to the BUCKS -6.5 (-107).
The Grizzlies have turned into very popular public underdogs and I like fading public underdogs.
According to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, nearly 90% of the cash wagered has been on Memphis, but this line hasn’t budged.
This is called a line freeze. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks don’t move a line according to the betting splits. It’s almost like the oddsmakers want more pro-Grizzlies action.
Memphis is without two backcourt starters, which is an area Milwaukee is deep at. Plus, the Bucks could be getting Holiday back for this contest.
The Grizzlies’ four leading scorers from their last game with the Bucks won’t be on the floor Wednesday. In fact, Memphis’ leading scorer from that game, Allen, joined the Bucks this past offseason and is in their starting 5.
Lastly, Milwaukee is one of the few teams that not only match Memphis in physicality and size but exceeds it.
LEAN to the BUCKS -6.5 (-107) only because the Under is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 228.5 (-107) because the Over is getting flooded with money and the Grizzlies are without several shot creators.
More than 60% of the money is on the Over (per Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app), which has steamed it up from the 226-point opener.
Typically, I like to fade such lopsided betting markets, especially in this case since I’m assuming the market is betting based on the star power between both teams.
But the Under has cashed in five of Milwaukee’s last six games and the Grizzlies will need superstar PG Ja Morant to carry them past a Bucks team that’s has a ton of defensive backcourt players.
Not only is Holiday one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA but guards George Hill, Wesley Matthews and Donte DiVincenzo also get after it defensively. They’ll all be focused on Morant since Memphis will be without Brooks, Bane and Anderson.
UNDER 228.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this contest.
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