The Memphis Grizzlies (24-23) travel to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (26-24) at American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Memphis has won back-to-back and three of its past four games (4-0 against the spread) including a 116-100 shellacking Sunday of the Philadelphia 76ers as a 3.5-point road underdog.
The Grizzlies are 6-3 overall and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games with the three losses coming against the first-place Utah Jazz.
Miami is beginning to heat up, winning four straight (4-0 ATS) and covering all four following a six-game losing drought.
The Heat are tied for fourth place in the Eastern Conference with the Atlanta Hawks but are only one game ahead of the seventh-place Boston Celtics.
The Grizzlies beat the Heat in an 89-85 “rock fight” as 1-point home favorites in their first regular-season meeting on St. Patrick’s Day.
Grizzlies at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:04 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Heat -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies +5 (-110) | Heat -5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Heat: Key injuries
Grizzlies
- PF Brandon Clarke (calf) questionable
- PG De’Anthony Melton (leg) out
- SF Justise Winslow (thigh) out
- PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out
Heat
- None
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Grizzlies at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 106, Grizzlies 104
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” towards the Grizzlies (+165) since I’m on Memphis to cover the spread.
My hesitation is the Grizzlies will be a little shorthanded and Miami is the healthiest it has been all season and is stacking wins.
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Against the spread (ATS)
This is just too many points to give Memphis given its obvious matchup edge in the backcourt. Heat taking a flyer on guard Victor Oladipo is good for all involved.
But, there are reasons why Oladipo is playing for his third team this season, one of which is his career-worst 112 defensive rating this season.
Maybe Miami assigns elite defensive wing Jimmy Butler to Memphis PG Ja Morant at the end of halves, but Morant should have a field day against Oladipo, backup PG Goran Dragic and SG Duncan Robinson.
Furthermore, the Heat are a below-average rebounding team and have been reckless with the ball (23rd in offensive turnover rate), which are Memphis’s strengths.
The Grizzlies force the second-highest rate of turnovers and are sixth in offensive-rebounding percentage.
Lastly, Memphis is 8-6 ATS as a road dog and Miami is 8-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.
BET GRIZZLIES +5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) for a half unit. Both teams are top-10 in defensive rating and below-average in effective field-goal shooting.
Also, more action and money are on the Over in this spot and I think that’s solely based on the “number is too low” logic. Stylistically, these teams a set up for a slugfest.
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