Summertime allows the football world to do some prep work for the upcoming season ahead. While we still are left to wonder how both the NFL and the college games will look in the fall, given the continued spread of COVID-19, we can certainly hope that we see players on the field, and soon.
You probably are familiar with some of the quarterbacks at the collegiate level that fans are hoping to see this fall, such as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jamie Newman, Tanner Morgan and K.J. Costello, among others. But as the NFL worlds started thinking about the 2021 NFL Draft, another name was in the mix, and near the top.
Rising redshirt sophomore Trey Lance, from North Dakota State.
Could the Bison have another first round quarterback on their hands, as was the case with Carson Wentz? They just might. Lance, in his first year as the starter for NDSU, put up almost perfect numbers last season. He completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,798 yards and 28 touchdowns, without throwing a single interception. He ran for 1,100 yards and another 14 touchdowns. And he led the Bison to yet another National Championship.
Lance had huge shoes to fill last fall, stepping into a spot vacated by current Los Angeles Charger Easton Stick, who led the Bison to a championship in his final season in Fargo. The redshirt freshman made his first start against Butler, in a neutral site game in his home state of Minnesota.
It did not take long for Lance to settle in.
On just his second passing attempt of the 2019 season, the young signal-caller flashed traits evaluators hope to see from more veteran passers. On this 1st and 10 passing attempt, Lance begins the play from under center, showing some activity in the pre-snap phase. He then executes a play-action fake – turning his back to the defense – before coming up firing:
A number of traits stand out on this play. The scheme (the quarterback lining up under center, carrying out a play-action fake with a deep drop, and throwing downfield) will catch the eye of old school NFL decision-makers. But while that is good to see – specially Lance showing quick processing after turning his back to the defense – the timing of the throw, coupled with the shoulder reduction he displays in response to edge pressure, is even more impressive.
Watch this play from the end zone angle:
That little shoulder turn to protect the football, coupled with the footwork to climb vertically in the pocket, is the hallmark of a quarterback who is comfortable facing pressure. Remember, this was his first start, and his second passing attempt. Sometimes people, myself included, argue that yardage after the catch is a quarterback statistic. This play is a prime example. By getting this football out on time and in rhythm, even when forced to slide and climb in the pocket, Lance puts his receiver in position to make the first defender miss.
Later in the game, the Bison return to this kind of design. Having set up the vertical shot play on the previous example, now Lance looks to go over the top of the defense:
Full credit where it is due, this is a tremendous job by wide receiver Phoenix Sproles tracking this throw over his shoulder. On the part of the quarterback, Lance reads the coverage perfectly and drops in a bucket shot, putting incredible arc on this throw to place it over the trailing defensive back. Very Russell Wilson-esque.
Later in the game, Lance got the Bison back in the endzone with this touchdown strike on a post route. What stands out on this throw is the job the quarterback does before the play. Butler shows him a two safety look prior to the snap, before rotating as the play begins to a single-high coverage with the free safety shaded to the three-receiver side of the offensive formation. Lance, if he is going to throw the backside post route to the tight end, needs to ensure that the safety does not jump that route, after of course diagnosing the safety rotation.
He does that perfectly before freezing him with his eyes:
Lance holds that safety over the number three receiver, before flashing his eyes backside to the tight end on his post route. From the end zone angle, you can see just how long Lance trains his eyes on the left side, before coming to his TE. Just watch the tell-tale helmet stripe:
Midway through the season, Lance and the Bison took on the University of Northern Iowa. The redshirt freshman enjoyed another strong afternoon, completing 10 of 18 passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns, while adding another 83 yards on 11 carries on the ground. Early in the game Lance hit on a post route, which provides an opportunity to highlight both his processing speed, and an area for growth:
Let’s break this play down a bit. The Bison use motion twice on this design, first presnap from right to left, to give Lance a coverage indicator, then right before the snap from left to right, showing the Panthers movement as the play begins. When his receiver first crosses the formation, Lance sees minimal movement from the defense, an indication the Panthers are in zone coverage. With both safeties deep, and the fact that Northern Iowa often plays with two high safeties, Lance is thinking Cover 2.
The Bison run a “peel,” or post/wheel, concept. The outside receiver cuts to the middle of the field on a post route while the wing tight end bends outside on a wheel. Before the play begins Lance is thinking Cover 2, and therefore the post route, is a likely smart throw, as that receiver will split the safeties.
But the analysis changes due to UNI’s response to the jet motion. As the center snaps the football the safety to that side of the field comes down towards the line of scrimmage in response to the presnap movement. The Panthers rotate to a Cover 3, single-high scheme. Lance reads this and, quickly, still throws the post route yet puts it low, saving his receiver from the now-lurking free safety.
What he does not see, and what I will be watching for in 2020, is that the cornerback stays on the post route a bit too long, leaving the wheel route wide open. So, this is good, but if Lance gives this an extra second, it could be even better.
Later in this contest the Bison return to this design, and this time, Lance gets to his third read in the progression:
On this play, the Panthers stay in a Cover 2 scheme. The cornerback reads the switch concept and stays over the top of the wheel route from the tight end, and the backside slot defender reads the play and works under the post route while the safeties squeeze it from the hashmarks. Seeing all this, Lance checks the ball down. This looks like a simple checkdown that you see thousands of times a week, but it illustrates his ability to scan through his reads, and make the right decision. Especially when the defense seems to have adjusted to what you are doing schematically.
The Bison got out to a fast start a few weeks later on the road against Youngstown State, and coasted to a relatively easy victory. In that quick start Lance completed 7 of 9 passes for 160 yards and three touchdowns, and added another rushing touchdown as well. Before we finish with one of those passing touchdowns, look at the anticipation on this out route from early in the contest:
Maybe it is the camera angle, maybe it is the route thrown, maybe the anticipation shown by both passers, but that play from Lance brought my mind to this throw from Marcus Mariota:
Man, the anticipation on this TD throw from Mariota is just a thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/ZU2uHj8ihK
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) October 1, 2019
One quarterback is an NFL passer. The other a redshirt freshman at an FCS school. Almost hard to tell the difference on these two clips.
We can end this introduction with what you want to see from an athlete playing at a lower level of competition: Dominance. One of Lance’s touchdown passes against Youngstown State is a prime example:
Lance faces an unblocked defender screaming off the edge, who has a free shot at him. But the quarterback is able to simply shrug him off, while keeping his eyes downfield, and he finds a target in the end zone uncovered for a touchdown.
If the Bison, and Lance, are able to return to the field in 2020, you might see even more defenders like #4 here is after this play: Dejected, head down, wondering just what they have to do to stop this guy.
Lance is going to put two scouting axioms to the test. First, “scout the traits, not the scheme.” Lance is in a somewhat friendly system that relies heavily on play-action, similar to the San Francisco 49ers. Evaluators will need to move beyond the offense and focus on what he does within that system, which is why moments like the first play highlighted are important. Second, “scout the player, not the helmet.” Lance plays for an FCS powerhouse, and some might question the level of competition. Remember, he is facing not only the 11 guys on the other side of the ball each week, but a defensive coordinator who is paid to invent ways to stop him. Focus on what he can do, if and when he is dominant, and enjoy the ride.