With a fun and upset-laden 1st week in the books, the NCAA Tournament rolls into week No. 2. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Thursday’s 4 Sweet 16 games will be held in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena and in New York at Madison Square Garden. The opener in Vegas features the best upset target of the night.
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Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.
ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) vs. UConn – 7:15 p.m. ET.
Arkansas went 8-10 in a strong SEC and was ousted in the SEC Tournament after 1 win. When the Razorbacks entered this tourney, they came in having lost 4 of their last 5.
But this is also a UA team that from Jan. 21-Feb. 21 went 7-3 with wins over well-regarded teams like Kentucky and Texas A&M. Over that stretch, the Razorbacks registered a 67-64 loss at Baylor.
Analytic measures for Arkansas are solid. The UA team plays at a fast tempo, with efficient defense and abilities to force turnovers and block shots at standout levels. On offense, the Razorbacks like to get their points in 2-by-2 fashion. When they do get 3, it’s likely on an and-1; Arkansas is not a frequent launcher of triples (348th NCAA-I in frequency of 3-point attempts). Nor should it be: UA is shooting just 31.3% from distance.
UConn does shoot a lot of 3s. If the Huskies have a great night from beyond the arc, they’ll win and cover. But Arkansas is a top-25 squad in defending the perimeter. Over their last 9 games, the Razorbacks have held foes to a 25% mark from 3-point range. In a neutral-site contest, the contrasting-offensive-styles battle can often sway toward the side getting its buckets at the rim on the blocks.
UConn should have the edge on the boards, but the Huskies can be loose with the basketball. If Arkansas can stay on a roll in forcing turnovers, Connecticut can be had in the transition game. UA is 6-1 in its last 7 neutral-site games, and ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) is solid play Thursday. Some aggressive bettors may want to pair this action with RAZORBACKS (+160) on the moneyline.
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