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We’re on to the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We have 4 games scheduled for Thursday, and another 4 games slated for Friday as we pare down the field even further. There are not as many games as the 1st weekend, but we still have quite a few betting opportunities.
Let’s head into the weekend strong.
After looking at the BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is a can’t-miss, Sweet 16 parlay among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Thursday’s slate would even be can’t-miss TV if it were the regular season. We get a national championship rematch between UConn and San Diego State as well as a top-10 battle between Illinois and Iowa State. Both of these contests will be played at TD Garden in Boston.
UConn finished No. 1 in the final regular-season USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, with San Diego State checking in at No. 25. Iowa State is No. 4, and Illinois is 10th.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 parlay
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:42 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.
Leg 1: UCONN -10.5 (-120) vs. San Diego State – Thursday, 7:39 p.m. (TBS/truTV)
The defending champs face the national runner-up from last April. The Huskies polished off the Aztecs in last year’s title game 76-59, easily covering as 6.5-point favorites with the Over (130.5) connecting.
UConn (33-3), the No. 1 seed in the East, is looking to become the 1st team since Florida in 2006 and 2007 to repeat. So far, the Huskies haven’t really encountered any speed bumps. They spanked No. 16 seed Stetson 91-52 to cover as 27.5-point spread in the 1st round, and it had little trouble with No. 9 seed Northwestern in a 75-58 win, covering as 13-point favorites. That’s an average margin of victory of 28.0 PPG, while covering both games as a double-digit favorite.
No. 5 seed San Diego State (26-10) had little trouble with 13th-seeded Yale last time out, winning 85-57 as a 5.5-point favorite. However, the Aztecs barely scraped by No. 12 seed UAB in the opening round, winning 69-65 but not covering as 6.5-point favorites.
The Aztecs could hang around a bit in the 1st half vs. the Huskies Thursday, but expect this to end similar to how the title game ended nearly a full calendar year ago.
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Leg 2: Alabama vs. North Carolina OVER 173.5 (-110) — Thursday, 9:39 p.m. (CBS)
No. 4 seed Alabama (23-11) takes on top-seeded North Carolina (29-7) at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles for the chance to advance to Saturday’s West Region final.
Alabama rolled as a 8.5-point favorite past No. 13 seed Charleston in the 1st round by a 109-96 score, the most points scored in this NCAA Tournament so far. Then ‘Bama was shockingly held to just 72 points by 12th-seeded Grand Canyon in the 2nd round, but the Crimson Tide won by 11 and covered as 5-point favorites to advance. Alabama is No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The Tide are the top-scoring team in the nation at 90.7 PPG, while hitting 47.8% from the field with 36.9% from behind the 3-point line. On defense, Alabama wasn’t too concerned, conceding 80.4 PPG. That led to many Over results, as the Tide boast a 25-9 O/U record, including a 4-1 O/U mark in their last 5 games. The win vs. Grand Canyon didn’t come close, though, as the 2 teams combined for 133 points against an O/U line of 172.5.
The Tar Heels, No. 5 in the Coaches Poll, have been on fire, too, blasting No. 16 seed Wagner 90-62 in the opening round, before crushing No. 9 seed Michigan State 85-69 in the 2nd round. UNC covered both games as a 25.5- and a 4-point favorite, respectively, with both games cashing Overs. The total has gone high in 4 of 5 postseason games for the Heels, and it also cashed against Duke in the final regular-season game.
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Leg 3: CREIGHTON +2.5 (-105) vs. Tennessee – Friday, 10:09 p.m. (TBS/truTV)
In the final scheduled game of the Sweet 16, the 11th-ranked Bluejays (25-9) take on the No. 6 Volunteers (26-8) in Detroit.
Third-seeded Creighton outlasted No. 11 seed Oregon 86-73 in double overtime in an epic game last Saturday night. The Bluejays went 38.5% from behind the 3-point line, jacking up triples at a dizzying pace where Creighton finished 15-for-39. The Bluejays were beat on the boards 48-43, but turned it over 2 less times (11-9) than the Ducks. The Bluejays played a clean game, too, committing just 12 personal fouls despite the 2 extra sessions.
Tennessee bowed out last season as a No. 4 seed in the Sweet 16 against FAU. This March, the Vols are a No. 2 seed. They grinded out a 62-58 win over 7th-seeded Texas in the 2nd round, failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Tennessee was able to survive and advance despite shooting just 33.8% (22-for-65) from the field and an awful 12.0% (3-for-25) from behind the 3-point line. If the Vols shoot like that again, they’ll ger buried by the Big East representative.
The Vols cannot be trusted, as they shoot just 44.3% from the field, and 33.9% from behind the 3-point line. Defense saved them against the Longhorns, but Tennessee will have a hard time shutting down the perimeter game of Creighton.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $58.33 (payout = $68.33).
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