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The No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (23-12) and the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (31-3) meet Friday at Lenovo Center in Raleigh for an NCAA Tournament East Region first-round game. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Mountaineers hail from Emmitsburg, Maryland, and they’re from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), led by coach Donny Lind in his first season. The late legendary coach Jim Phelan was the coach for the Mount for 49 years from 1954-2003, rolling up 830 victories.
Mount St. Mary’s last NCAA Tournament appearance resulted in a First Four loss to Texas Southern in 2021. It won an Opening Round game in 2008 against Coppin State and a First Four matchup in 2017 against New Orleans, but it is 0-4 all-time in first-round games, losing by an average of 32.0 points per game (PPG) in those outings — all as a No. 16 seed.
MSM won a First Four game Wednesday against American, 83-72, covering as a 3-point underdog as the Over (128) cashed. Forwards Dola Adebayo and Jedy Cordilia each had 22 points, while G Dallas Hobbs went for 17 points, including 4 treys.
Duke won the ACC Tournament, but it went just 1-2 against the spread (ATS). It saved the best for last, however, topping Louisville 73-62 as a 6.5-point favorite Saturday to cut down the nets in Charlotte. Despite the 1-2 ATS mark in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils are still 8-2 ATS across the past 10 games. The Under is on a 3-1 run.
ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg of Duke suffered a badly sprained ankle in a 78-70 win over Georgia Tech March 13. He left with the assistance of a wheelchair and subsequently missed the final 2 games of the ACC Tournament. However, he is reportedly ‘pain-free’ and appears set to face MSM, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on a bit of a pitch count — especially since the game could get out of hand rather quickly.
The last time Duke played in the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center — then called PNC Arena — it lost to 14 seed Mercer 78-71 in the second round in 2014. Duke’s Quinn Cook led all scorers with 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting from 3 in the loss.
Duke is No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll.
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Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mount St. Mary’s +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000) | Duke -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mount St. Mary’s +32.5 (-110) | Duke -32.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 140.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
Duke 112, Mount St. Mary’s 69
Moneyline
Risking 100 times your potential return on Duke (-10000) is not recommended.
PASS.
Against the spread
DUKE -32.5 (-110) is worth playing laying the points. Yes, Lenovo Center treated it poorly the last time it took the floor in an NCAA Tournament game. But, Mount St. Mary’s +32.5 (-110) will offer very little resistance.
Look for Flagg, G Sion James, G Kon Knueppel, C Khaman Maluach, and G Tyrese Proctor to get the job done before turning it over to the reserves to close it out.
Over/Under
OVER 140.5 (-105) is the strongest play on the board, and Duke should do most of the heavy lifting.
It’s surprising to see this number so low. Yes, Duke averaged just 75.0 PPG in the ACC Tournament over 3 games, but that was against 2 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, and quality opponents. The smallish Mountaineers aren’t going to provide much resistance at all.
Remember, this is also a Duke team that went for 93 or more points in 4 of the final 5 regular-season games, including dropping 110 on Illinois Feb. 22.
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