The No. 9 Memphis Tigers (21-10) face the No. 8 Boise State Broncos (27-7) in the first round of the West Region Thursday. Tip from the Moda Center in Portland is scheduled for 1:45 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Memphis vs. Boise State odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Boise State is coming off a Mountain West Championship, having won and covered its last 2 games against Wyoming and San Diego State, teams respectively ranked No. 12 and No. 8 in the NCAA Tournament.
The Broncos, per Kenpom, have the 19th-best adjusted defensive efficiency. They allowed just 60.8 points per game, the 15th-fewest in the nation. Boise State is a conference-best 7-2 against the spread (ATS) when an underdog.
Memphis, led by freshman C Jalen Duren, (11.9 points, 7.9 rebounds per game) beat a short-handed Houston team twice in the regular season. The Tigers have 10 losses including several bad ones to ECU, UCF, and Tulane. They’re just 11-14-1 ATS as the favorite this season.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Memphis vs. Boise State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Memphis -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Boise State +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread (ATS): Memphis -3.5 (-107) | Boise State +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Memphis vs. Boise State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Boise State 66, Memphis 62
Money line
LEAN BOISE STATE +135.
The Broncos are being underrated in this battle.
They have just 7 losses on the season, and they are an experienced group, led in minutes per game by 3 seniors. Four of the 5 players that average over 5 points per game are seniors.
It’s a well-put-together team that is elite defensively. The Broncos are 18-15 ATS this season. Also, 5 of Boise State’s top 6 scorers are 6-foot-7 or taller so it will have a size advantage.
As for Memphis, it is a far younger squad and had a few horrible losses to teams like Georgia and Ole Miss among many other conference opponents which it lost to.
A late-season push and athletic prospects make Memphis a compelling play, but I’ll take the Broncos’ experience in this first-round matchup.
Against the spread
PASS.
I like the money line, plus-money value better here.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 133.5 (-107).
Memphis has the far stronger offense. However it struggled against Houston, putting up 53 points after scoring on SMU the game before. The Broncos rank 19th in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
They also rank 306th in adjusted tempo. The Broncos are the more veteran side, and I expect this game to be played at their pace. They’re 15-18 O/U on the season.
Memphis plays a different style, top 50 in offensive efficiency and tempo. I prefer the Broncos to control the pace and style of play in this game, giving the Under 133.5 the edge.
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