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The sixth-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12) and third-seeded Kentucky Wildcats (23-11) meet in an NCAA Tournament second-round game in the Midwest Region Sunday. Tip-off from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Illinois vs. Kentucky odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
No. 6 seed Illinois impressed in its first-round win Friday night, defeating the No. 11 seed Xavier Musketeers 86-73. The Fighting Illini covered as 4-point favorites, while the Under (162) hit. This marked their eighth NCAA Tournament victory since 2011. F Will Riley led the team with 22 points, going 3-for-4 from deep. C Tomislav Ivisic added a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds, helping Illinois advance to the next round.
No. 3 seed Kentucky pulled away in the second half to secure a 76-57 win over the 14th-seeded Troy Trojans Friday night, covering as an 11-point favorite. The Under (152) cashed. Leading scorer, G Otega Oweh, had 20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. The Wildcats now set their sights on reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Illinois vs. Kentucky odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 5:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Illinois -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Kentucky +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Illinois -1.5 (-115) | Kentucky +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 170.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Illinois vs. Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 84, Kentucky 81
Moneyline
BET ILLINOIS (-130).
This NCAA Tournament matchup is as even as it gets. Both teams light it up offensively, with Kentucky averaging 85.0 points per game (PPG) and Illinois right behind at 83.9. Both also push the pace, ranking inside the top 25 in tempo, with Illinois playing slightly faster.
Illinois has a +317 scoring differential this season, outscoring opponents by 9.3 PPG. It also dominates the glass, leading the nation with 39.7 rebounds per game while holding opponents to just 30.0. While the team may be young, coach Brad Underwood isn’t concerned, saying, “We’re not freshmen anymore.” G Kasparas Jakucionis has stepped up, averaging 15.0 PPG and 5.7 rebounds, while Ivisic controls the paint.
Kentucky relies heavily on the 3-ball, hitting 10 of 26 in its opener and averaging 9.6 per game. But if those shots aren’t falling, it could spell trouble against an Illinois squad that holds opponents to just 33.5% from deep. The Wildcats have also struggled to cover, going 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games, while Illinois has covered 5 of its last 6 outings.
With its rebounding edge and perimeter defense, Illinois has a great shot at punching its ticket to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year.
Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no real advantage to playing with the spread in this game, as the books basically see this as a pick’em.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 170.5 (-115).
Even with 2 high-powered offenses, this total feels a bit too high. Both Kentucky and Illinois have stayed Under in their last 2 games, and while they can score, their defenses shouldn’t be overlooked. Kentucky allows 77.3 PPG, while Illinois gives up 74.6. With a Sweet 16 berth on the line, expect enough defensive intensity to keep the total in check.
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