The No. 16 Georgia State Pirates (18-10) meet the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-3) Thursday in the West Region. Tip from Portland’s Moda Center is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Georgia State vs. Gonzaga odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Pirates will try to do the unthinkable — conquer the top-seeded Bulldogs. Gonzaga is the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament so Georgia State will have its work cut out.
The Pirates rank 152nd in the nation per Kenpom. Their strength is defensively, with the 115th-ranked defensive efficiency. George State won 3 games by single digits in the Sub Belt to earn a tournament berth.
As for Gonzaga, last year’s tournament runnerup is among the betting favorites to win it all behind F Drew Timme and potential No. 1 overall pick C Chet Holmgren.
The Zags rank first in the nation in points per game (88.3) and second in field goal percentage. It also ranks third in opponents’ field goal percentage, so they’re a dominant group coached by the experienced Mark Few.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Georgia State vs. Gonzaga odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Georgia State +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300) | Gonzaga -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Georgia State +22.5 (-107) | Gonzaga -22.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Georgia State vs. Gonzaga odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Gonzaga 84, Georgia State 59
Money line
PASS.
It’s March. Enough said.
Don’t bet any -5000 money line. Along those lines, one should also note it seems impossible that Georgia State pulls off the upset despite Virginia going down as a No. 1 seed in 2018.
Against the spread
LEAN to GONZAGA -22.5 (-115).
Gonzaga is 1-2 ATS when favored by 20-30 points, a position the Bulldogs were in during the beginning of the season.
The Bulldogs have the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 7 adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re that good, and this should be the start of a dominating stretch of games.
The size should be the most telling factor. Georgia State has only one player over 6-foot-9. That’s going to be a problem. The Bulldogs have 2 players that stand over 6-foot-10 and get big-time minutes.
Timme and Holmgren are going to dominate the paint and should help rack up the score.
Over/Under
BET on the UNDER 149.5 (-112).
The Zags’ offense has been so good that its games typically get higher totals, but if there’s one thing that both teams are good at it’s not hitting the projected total.
Georgia State is stronger defensively which could limit Gonzaga’s looks. GSU is 8-17 O/U this season while the Zags are 12-17 O/U.
Given that Gonzaga will slow the pace when they’re up big, I expect a slow-paced game in the second half, one that helps the Under hit.
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