The 5-seed Colorado Buffaloes (23-8) meet the 4-seed Florida State Seminoles (17-6) Monday in the second round of the East Regional at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET and will broadcast on TBS. Below, we analyze the Florida State-Colorado odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Florida State held off 13-seed UNC Greensboro Saturday for a 64-54 first-round win in a game closer than the final score indicates as the Spartans covered as 10.5-point underdogs.
However, the Seminoles won despite being outrebounded on the offensive glass 11-5, losing the turnover battle 15-10 and missing all nine 3-point shots.
The Buffaloes boat raced 12-seed Georgetown in the first round 96-73, easily covering as 9-point favorites.
Colorado was on fire, hitting 61% of its field goals (16-for-25 from behind the arc) and Buffaloes All-Pac-12 first team PG McKinley Wright IV notched a double-double with 12 points and 13 assists.
This is the third straight NCAA Tournament Florida State at least won its first-round game and just the second time Colorado has advanced to the second round of the Big Dance in coach Tad Boyle’s 11 seasons on the job.
Florida State vs. Colorado: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 5:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Florida State -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Colorado +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Florida State -1.5 (-110) | Colorado +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 140.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Florida State vs. Colorado: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Colorado 76, Florida State 70
Money line (ML)
PASS because it’s only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive to bet the Buffaloes getting 1.5 points rather than Colorado (+100).
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Against the spread (ATS)
The market hasn’t been a believer in No. 22 Colorado all season, and the Buffaloes continue to prove the market wrong.
Colorado has an 18-13 ATS record this season with a plus-3.1-point ATS margin, 3-1 ATS against ranked foes and 5-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents with a plus-10.7-point ATS margin.
Also, Florida State’s resume looks a little less impressive now compared to before the NCAA Tournament whereas Colorado’s is more formidable.
For instance, three of the Seminoles’ four regular-season opponents that made the Big Dance were eliminated in the first round (all ACC teams).
While the Buffaloes’ victories over UCLA and USC look more impressive since both teams also advanced to the second round.
TAKE COLORADO +1.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN toward OVER 140.5 (-110) because Colorado’s offense is in rhythm. The Buffaloes have the highest free-throw percentage in the nation, and Florida State’s defense is ranked 298th in FTA/FG rate.
So even if Colorado has an off-shooting night, the Buffaloes can rack up easy points at the charity stripe.
Furthermore, Florida State’s offense should have a bounce-back shooting performance from the first-round game when the Seminoles bricked all their 3-point attempts.
BET OVER 140.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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