The 9th-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls (35-3) and No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs (31-6) clash in a national semifinal Saturday in Houston. The battle at NRG Stadium will tip off at 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the FAU vs. San Diego State odds as we make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
FAU is No. 25 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. The Owls have advanced to the Final Four with 4 wins. Two of those — against Memphis and No. 13 Kansas State — were by a combined 4 points. The Conference USA champs tote an 11-game win streak into this game.
The 18th-ranked Aztecs are a defensive-minded team on a roll. Across 3 Mountain West Conference Tournament wins and 4 NCAA Tournament triumphs, San Diego State have held opponents to 56.6 points per game on a shooting mark of 35.2%.
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FAU vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:36 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: FAU +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | San Diego State -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): FAU +2.5 (-110) | San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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FAU vs. San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 69, FAU 65
Moneyline
The Aztecs have played a much tougher slate this season, and a breakdown of their schedule reveals their they have played an offense-skewed collection of opponents. And that speaks even more highly of SDSU’s tenacious defense.
Peg the Owls as being over-reliant on 3s, and in this one they are up against an SDSU team that ranks 2nd in the nation in defending the perimeter (27.8%).
The Aztecs’ offensive rebounding has been stronger over recent weeks. They figure to get to the line more in this matchup, and they are worthy of a probability number of 60% or perhaps a click higher.
BACK SAN DIEGO STATE (-145).
Against the spread
SDSU has won 6 straight ATS. But peg the Moneyline offering slightly better value here. PASS, unless the price on -2.5 falls below -110.
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Over/Under
This matchup features slow-tempo San Diego State and mid-paced FAU. Both teams have been quite efficient on defense. And this number reflects all of that. AVOID.
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