Alabama, the No. 4 seed in the West Region, takes on North Carolina, the top-seeded team in the West Region, in a highly-anticipated Sweet 16 matchup. The lives of each team’s March Madness run and a trip to the Elite Eight is on the line. It’s expected that the Tar Heels will enter the contest as the favorite.
This is the third time in four years that head coach Nate Oats has led the Crimson Tide to the Sweet 16. The circumstances surrounding the team from Tuscaloosa made it seem like making it this far in the tournament was a long shot. High roster turnover and a practically brand new assistant coaching staff did not hinder Alabama in its quest to make a deep March Madness run.
As for North Carolina, the program has high expectations every single year and views the Crimson Tide as nothing more than an obstacle on its way to the Final Four. It will have to come out firing on offense if it wants to compete with the nation’s highest-scoring team.
Recently, ESPN college basketball experts predicted the outcome for each Sweet 16 matchup (subscription required). The panel of three, consisting of John Gasaway, Jeff Borzello, and Myron Medcalf, was split on the Tide vs. Tar Heels.
Gasaway has North Carolina winning with a final score of 90-84, stating, “For all the quite understandable attention paid to Alabama’s 3s, where the Tide really thrived in the SEC this season was inside the arc. Bama connected on a stellar 57% of its 2s, and I just don’t see that happening against Armando Bacot and this excellent UNC defense.”
Medcalf agrees with Gasaway that the Crimson Tide’s season comes to an end in this game, but believes it’s a bit closer, predicting the final score to be 87-83. He argued, “North Carolina, I think, has proved it can play with any team in the field. Really strong defensively. The Heels have an All-American running the show. They have an elite big man. And now Harrison Ingram is hitting 3-pointers again. They can hurt you everywhere. That will demand a defensive level from Alabama that Nate Oats’ squad doesn’t have.”
However, Borzello goes against the grain by selecting Alabama to pull off the win. In a one-possession game, Borzello has the Tide winning 88-86.
“I’m going with the upset here. There are certainly concerns from Alabama’s perspective: Can the Tide keep Armando Bacot off the glass? Can they keep the Heels out of transition and consistently get stops? Alabama hasn’t been the free-flowing offense that buries teams in a barrage of 3-pointers all that often the past few weeks. But if Carolina lets the Tide run, it could be a breakout game.”
The panel is split 2-1, but favors North Carolina. Despite this, Alabama fans should pay close attention to their analysis beyond the projected winner. All three experts have the winner walking away victorious by fewer than 10 points. It is expected to be a close one.
Also worth noting is the fact that all three experts predict both teams to score over 80 points. In a high-scoring affair, it could go either way. However, if the Tide can get shots to fall early and play the high-quality defense the team exhibited against Grand Canyon, it could be Alabama’s game to lose.
Roll Tide Wire will continue to cover Alabama basketball as the team prepares for its Sweet 16 matchup against the North Carolina Tar Heels which will be held in Los Angeles on Thursday, March 28 at 9:39 p.m. ET.
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