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The No. 9 seed Creighton Bluejays (24-10) and No. 8 seed Louisville Cardinals (27-7) meet in an NCAA Tournament first-round game in the South Region Thursday. Tip-off from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, is set for 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Creighton vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Bluejays, who finished the regular season second in the Big East, made a deep run in the conference tournament but lost in the championship game to the No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm, 82-66, Saturday. They are just 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 games but hold a 19-13-2 ATS record on the season. Led by star C Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is averaging 19.4 points per game, Creighton’s strength lies on the offensive end, ranking 34th in KenPom’s offensive ratings.
Louisville, ranked No. 11 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, sits between 20th and 30th in both KenPom’s offensive and defensive ratings, making it a strong team on both ends of the court. It is the highest-ranked No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to both the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll. Coming off a 73-62 neutral-court ACC Championship loss to the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils Saturday, the Cardinals have elevated their play recently, going 11-1 straight up and 7-5 ATS in their last 12 outings. They are 20-14 ATS on the season.
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Creighton vs. Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Creighton +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Louisville -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Creighton +2.5 (-110) | Louisville -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Creighton vs. Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Louisville 77, Creighton 71
Moneyline
PASS.
The moneyline is playable for both sides at these odds, but considering the tight spread, laying the points is the better play for the predicted outcome. Creighton has shown too much weakness in recent weeks, so it’s safe to assume it won’t come out on top Thursday.
Against the spread
BET LOUISVILLE -2.5 (-110).
The Bluejays have too many discouraging losses over the past month and a half to assume they can compete with a red-hot Cardinals team.
Creighton’s final 7 games of the regular season included losses by 4 points at home to UConn Feb. 11 and by 22 at Xavier March 1. It was also blown out by 16 points Saturday, allowing 57 points to the Red Storm in the second half. Its defense, ranked 42nd in the country by KenPom, just won’t be able to contain a dangerous Cardinals attack.
As for Louisville, it is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 outings as a favorite and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 home games. It may also feel like it has a home-court advantage Thursday, playing about an hour away from the KFC Yum! Center. Bet LOUISVILLE -2.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 145.5 (-115).
Both teams went 2-1 O/U in their respective conference tournament games, with the Bluejays going Over in the last 2 outings of the regular season as well. They have allowed at least 74 points in 3 of their last 4 contests.
Both teams also rank in the top 70 in tempo, meaning they can play at a fast pace. Louisville has scored at least 76 points in 4 of its last 6 games. Considering these trends, back OVER 145.5 (-115).
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