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The No. 10 seed Colorado State Rams (24-10) face off against the 10th-seeded Virginia Cavaliers (23-10) in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament Tuesday. Tip from UD Arena in Dayton is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET (truTV). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Colorado State vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Colorado State won 4 straight games to end the regular season, before falling 74-61 to eventual champion New Mexico in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament Friday. It failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point underdog, and the Under (153.5) cashed. The Rams were 3-7 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 and 16-16 ATS for the season.
The Cavaliers were a mixed bag down the stretch of the regular season, going 4-4 over their last 8. Virginia fell 73-65 to eventual champion North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament Friday. It didn’t cover the spread as a 2.5-point favorite, and the Over (122.5) cashed. It went 5-5 in its last 10 games ATS and 17-15 ATS this season.
Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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Colorado State vs. Virginia odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Colorado State -142 (bet $142 to win $100) | Virginia +118 (bet $100 to win $118)
- Against the spread (ATS): Colorado State -2.5 (-110) | Virginia +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 120.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Colorado State vs. Virginia picks and predictions
Prediction
Colorado State 65, Virginia 61
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got the Rams (-142) winning this game, but taking a closer at the odds, I’ll place my bet on the spread because I’m paying less juice. When the line is only -2.5 like this one, there’s not that much of a difference between the moneyline and the spread.
Against the spread
BET COLORADO STATE -2.5 (-110).
Colorado State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7, but when the line is this small, I’m more worried about its recent play. It has won 4 of its last 5 coming into this game.
Virginia scares me in this tournament because it has so many problems scoring; it finished last in the ACC in points per game (63.6). We all remember when the No. 1 Cavaliers lost to No. 16 UMBC in the 1st round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Defense is great, but you need to score to win games, especially in a format like this one.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 120.5 (-115).
Colorado State has not seen a total this low all season. The lowest one it saw was 133, and that game went Over. It averages over 75 points per game on the season.
Virginia had totals set in the 120s for both games in the ACC Tournament, and both games went Over. It also went Over in 2 of its last 3 regular-season games. The Cavaliers have also gone Over the total in 2 of their last 3 NCAA tournament games.
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