The Baylor Bears (24-2) take on the Villanova Wildcats (18-6) in a South Region Sweet 16 game Saturday. The top-seeded Bears and fifth-seeded Wildcats will tip-off at 5:15 p.m. ET at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Below, we analyze the Baylor-Villanova odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Baylor finished No. 3 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. The high-scoring Bears (85.3 points per game, third NCAA) won their first 18 games this season. They fell 83-74 to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament, but they’ve coasted to two wins over Hartford and Wisconsin in this tournament.
The Wildcats advanced to this level with two relatively easy wins: A 73-63 triumph over Winthrop and an 84-61 victory over North Texas. ‘Nova is solid at both ends of the floor. On offense, the Wildcats are frequent launchers of 3-point attempts. In their Sunday win over UNT, they went 15-for-30 from distance to match a season-high for most treys made.
Baylor vs. Villanova: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Villanova +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Against the spread/ATS: Baylor -7.5 (-110) | Villanova +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 140.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Baylor vs. Villanova: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 75, Villanova 70
Money line (ML)
The Bears are first in the nation in 3-point accuracy (42.9%). Baylor creates a lot of turnovers (37 through two tourney games) which fuels a solid transition game.
Villanova is trying to make a March run without senior G Collin Gillespie (knee), who averaged 14.0 points and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 37.6% from beyond the arc in 20 games this season.
Defensively, the Wildcats are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Over their last eight games, the Wildcats have held opponents to a 39.6% mark from the floor and a 29.9% mark from 3-point land. They just haven’t played anything really all that close to what this BU offense has to offer.
Peg Baylor as a near-80% proposition Saturday; BACK THE BEARS (-300).
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Bears are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games.
Confidence in Baylor to win by three or more scores is not high. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is 8-2 in the Bears’ last 10 games. Among the group of teams remaining, BU’s defense is below average. The game flow of this contest leans toward the leader down the stretch answering runs with baskets, not stops.
TAKE THE OVER 140.5 (-110) which figures as the strongest of these three plays.
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