The No. 1-seed Baylor Bears (26-2) tangle with the No. 2 Houston Cougars (28-3) Saturday in the Final Four’s first semifinal. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:14 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. Below, we analyze the Baylor-Houston odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Baylor has defeated Hartford, Wisconsin, Villanova and Arkansas to reach the Final Four. The Bears’ win over Arkansas in the Elite Eight was a technical knockout, with BU leading wire-to-wire and keeping a stranglehold on a multi-possession lead almost the whole way.
Tournament time has brought out the best of the Bears in two key facets of the game: Baylor is taking better care of the ball (6.8 turnovers per game) and playing improved defense (43.1% field-goal percentage allowed) compared to some relative struggles in February and early-March.
Houston has survived two scares in the tournament with late-game slides against Rutgers and Oregon State. Strong rebounding performances, good passing, and winning turnover battles have helped the Cougars overcome iffy shooting. UH is shooting just 38.8% from the floor for the tournament.
Baylor vs. Houston: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Baylor -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Houston +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Against the spread/ATS: Baylor -5.5 (-110) | Houston +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 135 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Baylor vs. Houston: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 70, Houston 68
Money line (ML)
The Lone Star State matchup figures to be closer than the way the odds lay. Its been a bumpy road for Houston, but the reason the Cougars prevail without shooting lights out is what makes them so dangerous as a spoiler. UH can shoot under 40% in a game but still win because the Cougars do everything else — a ton of little things — at a high level.
The Cougars ride momentum and confidence into this game, and the few days of rest possibly come as a reset to their shooting woes. Houston does two things well that figure to give the Bears fits — it hits the offensive glass hard and can get out in transition and bunch some points together on turnovers.
Maybe turnovers haven’t been a problem in recent bracket action for Baylor but the Bears haven’t played a defense like this either.
Houston can block shots, steal away possessions, and rebound its way to a National Championship.
Take the COUGARS (+190).
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Against the spread (ATS)
UH is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral-site games as an underdog. The Cougars are 11-2 ATS over their last 13 games overall as dogs.
Peg this one as a one-possession game with Baylor squeaking by or losing outright.
Take HOUSTON +5.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Signals crop up on both sides of the O/U ledger and there’s just the slightest lean toward the Over 135 (-110). A PASS IS SUGGESTED.
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