The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-43) clash with the San Diego Padres (77-62) Saturday in the second game of a 3-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Dodgers lead 10-4
The Dodgers fell 5-4 in 10 innings to the Padres Friday night. The game was affected early on by rain, but there was a dry spell after the 5th inning as only the winning run was scored.
The Dodgers are a dangerous play this late in the season because they’re 7 games up for the top seed in the playoffs and 18 games up on the Padres in the NL West. Keep that in mind when placing bets on them because they’ll likely be favored every game without a lot of incentive.
The Padres are fighting to keep the 2nd wild-card spot. They trail the New York Mets by 10 games for the top wild-card berth and hold a 1/2 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for the 2nd spot. They appear to have righted the ship after the splash made by acquiring OF Juan Soto wasn’t as big of a cannonball as expected. San Diego is 7-3 over its last 10 games.
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Dodgers at Padres projected starters
LHP Julio Urias vs. LHP Blake Snell
Urias (15-7, 2.29 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 145 2/3 IP.
- Was solid in his most recent start against San Diego last Saturday: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB and 2 K
- Has been a little better on the road this year: 9-4, 2.07 ERA vs. 6-3, 2.54 ERA at home
Snell (6-8, 3.73 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 99 IP.
- 1 start vs. Dodgers this year: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 12 K in L.A. July 1
- Strangely, has struggled at home: 3-6, 3.97 ERA, 11.9 K/9 vs. 3-2, 3.38 ERA, 12.6 K/9 on the road
Dodgers at Padres odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Dodgers -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Padres +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (-115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Dodgers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 3
Money line
This one shapes up to be a pitcher’s duel, but the Dodgers have a distinct bullpen advantage. Snell rarely goes deep, and the Padres used relief ace LHP Josh Hader Friday. He’s very rarely used in back-to-backs. The Dodgers have the 3rd-best bullpen ERA in MLB (3.03); San Diego’s is 13th (3.78).
I’ll take DODGERS FIRST 9 INNINGS (-117).
Run line/Against the spread
I prefer San Diego’s run line, but I’m not really keen on the -140 tag. So since both pitchers allowed just 1 ER each in their respective starts against each team, let’s go an unconventional route. Both should go 5 or 6 innings, so let’s take UNDER 4.5 RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155) for a FULL UNIT and UNDER 3.5 RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+102) for a HALF-UNIT.
Over/Under
Both teams have been Over teams the last 10 games. LA is 7-2-1, and San Diego is 8-2 O/U. We’ve had at least 8 runs in 4 straight between these teams, but I firmly believe this pitching matchup breaks that trend.
Go easily, because we’re going against the grain, but LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-102).
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