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The Los Angeles Dodgers (53-38) face the New York Mets (42-50) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Citi Field is at 5:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Dodgers lead 3-2
Los Angeles took the first 2 games of this series. The Dodgers won 5-1 as slight +107 underdogs Saturday, and claimed a 6-0 shutout in Friday’s opener as -117 favorites.
Game 2 began as a pitchers’ duel — between L.A.’s RHP Tony Gonsolin and New York’s RHP Kodai Senga — but the Mets defense faltered late, allowing the Dodgers to score 4 runs in the final 2 innings.
New York was unable to turn a double play in the 8th inning when 1B Pete Alonzo threw high to 2nd base as L.A. scored for a 2-1 lead. In the 9th with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, Mets 3B Brett Baty misplayed a towering popup — the ball would hit Baty in the face after bouncing off the ground — as the Dodgers took a 3-1 lead. They followed with back-to-back RBI singles to put the game out of reach.
In the series opener, Dodgers LHP Julio Urias (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 7 K) and 3 relievers stymied the Mets, holding them to 1 hit.
The Mets hope RHP Max Scherzer can prevent a sweep when he takes the mound Sunday.
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Dodgers at Mets projected starters
RHP Bobby Miller vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Miller (5-1, 4.50 ERA) makes his 9th start. The rookie has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 44 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 home win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates July 5
- Road stats: 3-0, 2.16 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 3 starts
- Dodgers are 6-2 in Miller’s 8 starts
Scherzer (8-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 87 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 6-2 loss at San Diego Padres July 9
- Allowing .228 batting average and .625 OPS at home vs. .262 and .808 on the road this season
- After 3 scoreless innings and yielding just 1 hit vs. Mets April 19 at Dodger Stadium, was ejected before start of 4th inning for having too much of a “sticky substance” — his only outing vs. New York in last 2 seasons
Dodgers at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 3, Dodgers 1
Moneyline
Scherzer has not lost a home start this season — he’s 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 9 ER) in 5 starts. While the Mets didn’t win all those starts — they’re 3-2 — his .228 opponent batting average at Citi Field is impressive.
Looking to avoid a sweep, I like Scherzer to continue his home dominance and pitch New York to victory.
BET METS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
While my prediction has New York winning, the Mets’ +1.5 line with -190 juice is too rich for my blood.
That’s a PASS, but consider making a small wager on the alternate line of METS 1.5 (+165).
However, be warned. Two of Scherzer’s 3 no-decisions at home this season were 1-run losses by the Mets.
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Over/Under
The Dodgers are the best Over team this year, hitting 59.3% of the time (51-35-5 according to Teamrankings.com), while the Mets are 3rd worst at 43.2% (38-50-4). So, this is a tough call.
As underdogs, the Dodgers are just 7-6-2 O/U.
Just like the 1st 2 games of this series, expect pitching to stand out. As mentioned, the Dodgers’ Miller has been solid on the road, which includes holding opponents to a .197 batting average.
Miller and Scherzer will make it tough to score in Sunday’s finale.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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