The Los Angeles Dodgers (53-34) and Miami Marlins (38-47) close out a four-game series Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Julio Urias is the projected starting pitcher for the Dodgers. Urias is 10-3 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 99 1/3 IP over 17 starts.
Urias has had some control problems of late. He’s posted a 4.67 ERA over his last 5 starts, but overall expected ERA metrics tell the story of a 6-year hurler having his best season in the majors.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 5-7 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 112 2/3 IP across 18 starts.
Alcantara has been the beneficiary of a .258 batting average on balls in play. Albeit in a small sample (24 plate appearances) current L.A. bats own a 1.636 OPS against him.
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Dodgers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Marlins +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
Miami has a chance at a four-game sweep in this contest. The Marlins won the first three games of the series, logging a pair of 1-run victories on Monday and Tuesday and then taking Wednesday night’s game, 9-6.
The potential Marlin sweep comes against a Los Angeles nine which had won nine straight, and 19 of its previous 25, games heading into the series.
Miami had been playing .333 ball over a similar stretch: the Fish were just 11-22 over their previous 33 games.
The Marlins have been the general lean in the series but the starter equation changes that in the series finale. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The DODGERS -1.5 (+110) are a sliver of a lean with Urias being a tad undervalued and Alcantara being overvalued. The Marlins being undervalued from a team angle makes for enough crossed wires as to put this in partial-unit or pass territory.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both bullpens have logged sub-3.00 earned run averages over the last month, and looking at some generous rates around the margins both are way out over their skis.
Throw in the Alcantara fade and the Dodgers being a high-octane offense. TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-105).
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