The Los Angeles Angels (20-18) and Cleveland Guardians (17-20) swing into a 3-game set at Progressive Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Angels vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. Cleveland won 4 of 7 games in 2022.
The Halos have dropped 4 of their last 5 games. They head into this series off a travel day on Thursday as they head out on a 7-game road trip.
Cleveland continues a homestand that has thus far seen the Guardians go 3-3. Scores have been low across those 6 games as the Under has gone 5-0. The Guardians have scored just 1.90 runs per game on a .462 OPS since April 30.
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Angels at Guardians projected starters
LHP Tyler Anderson vs. LHP Logan Allen
Anderson (1-0, 5.40 ERA) is tabbed for his 7th start. He has logged a 1.64 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 31 2/3 IP.
- Struggled mightily over 3 straight starts in April (10.29 ERA from April 8-22) but has rallied with 2 solid starts since (3 ER over 11 2/3 IP)
- Owns a 4.21 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over a 153-game career
Allen (1-1, 2.70 ERA) is making his 4th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 16 2/3 IP.
- A 24-year-old rookie who notched big strikeout numbers in the minors (2021-23: 258 1/3 IP, 340K, 3.48 ERA)
- Has gone at least 5 innings in each of 3 starts
Angels at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Angels +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Guardians -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-182) | Guardians -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Angels at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Angels 5, Guardians 4
Moneyline
This line has steamed toward the Cleveland side since it opened at -116. This was an Angels play in the first place, so there is now significant value on that side of the ledger.
The lefty-lefty mound match-up is a boon to the visiting nine, which owns a robust .775 OPS against southpaws (Cleveland .616).
Allen has been buoyed by stranding 87.9% of the base runners he’s had on. The rookie port-sider has been hit hard and barreled up at a high rate across his 3 turns.
Both bullpens have been quite good on the surface, but Cleveland’s is propped up by a .256 batting average on balls in play. When it comes to average exit velocity, the Guardians ‘pen ranks in the bottom third of the league.
LOS ANGELES (+116) is a strong value.
Run line/Against the spread
AVOID. More juice here ruins what would-be decent play at -175 for the Angels +1.5 runs.
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Over/Under
Actual vs. expected results — batting for both, starters and relievers for both — presents a muddy picture. Recent trends for each club do not help.
Don’t play in the mud: PASS.
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