The Lions are back in action at Ford Field on Sunday after an extended week. Detroit is 3-1 after beating the Packers in Green Bay on Thursday night in Week 4 and they host the 0-4 Carolina Panthers.
Here are some last-minute thoughts about the game rolling through my head on a chilly Sunday morning, as well as a final score prediction.
Why I think the Lions will win
- Even without dynamic rookie Brian Branch, the Lions pass defense against the Panthers passing offense is a decided advantage for Detroit. Carolina is completely devoid of the big play with Bryce Young at quarterback. The No. 1 overall pick ranks next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (4.9) and dead last in air yard per attempt (also 4.9). The longest pass play with Young in the game is a paltry 22 yards.
- Young also takes too many sacks behind a shaky offensive line, with a sack rate of just under 10 percent. Carolina’s OL ranks 29th in pass blocking grade per PFF, and that lowly ranking definitely passes the eye test. That’s bad news against a Detroit defense with 12 sacks in the last two weeks. It looks even better for the Lions considering those sacks have been divvied up amongst eight different players. Aaron Glenn’s defense is effective in bringing pressure from lots of places, which is very bad news for a skittish rookie QB who refuses to throw deep.
- The Lions rushing offense is another major advantage in the game. Detroit averages 136.5 rushing yards per game, 10th in the league. The 4.04 yards per carry is only 19th overall, but the 4.95 yards per carry on first downs is 7th. Carolina’s run defense is near the bottom in both total yards per game (136.3, 27th) and yards per carry allowed (4.74, 28th). Oh yeah, Detroit’s powerhouse offensive line is healthy for this one.
- The lesson of last year. Detroit blew a playoff berth in the 37-23 loss on Christmas Eve in Carolina in 2022. The Lions know they cannot overlook the winless Panthers. I believe in Dan Campbell and his staff to parlay that putrid game into an effective message about taking their foe seriously.
What worries me about the Panthers
- No Amon-Ra St. Brown could be a very big problem. To be blunt, the Lions offense was pathetic in joint practices this summer when No. 14 wasn’t on the field. The Lions WR corps doesn’t have the talent level for everyone to play up a notch on the totem pole, not even with Jameson Williams making his debut. It was a very different Jared Goff without St. Brown in the lineup. I know; it was joint practices. I also know how truly anemic the Lions were without him and that’s very difficult to shake.
- Carolina has a solid young defense, notably in the secondary. Jeremy Chinn and Xavier Woods are the best safety tandem you’ve never heard of, and the Panthers also sport perhaps the best blitzing off-ball LB in the league in Frankie Luvu. Their defensive stats would look a lot better if their offense weren’t so anemic.
- Last year’s trip to Carolina. I know the team, from coach Campbell on down through the players, has downplayed it, but that was one of the most embarrassing, disappointing efforts the franchise has laid on the fans in decades. I do believe this year’s team is different, better and stronger. Yet I cannot ignore what happened in a game where Detroit should have won by double-digits in December and got their door blown off by a bad Panthers team. In a young season where Arizona spanked Dallas, anything can happen.
Final prediction
I think this game will resemble a Big Ten game from back when that conference only had 10 teams. I expect a lot of running from both offenses and not necessarily a lot of scoring. As long as the Lions don’t give the ball away and play effective special teams, they’ve got this one.
Lions 23, Panthers 14