This week’s Detroit Lions game accelerates the timeline. A Saturday night game against the Denver Broncos means today’s morning pot of coffee gets nursed a lot longer. It’s a short sip kind of day in getting ready for the Week 15 prime-time matchup — one that could clinch a postseason berth for the Lions.
Here’s what is going through my mind about the game as we gear up for the final Lions home game before the calendar flips to the new year.
Why I think the Lions will win
- I sense a return to an offensive game script and plan that better plays to the Lions’ strengths. Namely, running the ball and Jared Goff operating more play-action passes with better route spacing concepts. The Lions offense, and coordinator Ben Johnson, have veered away from those fundamentals lately and it’s not working. Johnson, Goff and Dan Campbell are too good, too smart, to keep failing by emphasizing things they don’t do so well. A healthy (fingers crossed!) offensive line will help, too.
- It’s a great matchup for the Lions to get back to those offensive basics. The Broncos have the league’s worst run defense in yards per carry and also yards per carry on 1st downs. The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is a very real problem for Denver’s defense. So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.So too is Lions rookie Sam LaPorta at tight end.
- The Broncos are stylistically similar to the Bears, the Lions’ last opponent. It won’t take a radical crash course for Campbell and his coordinators to shift game plans on a short week. Meanwhile, Denver travels to Detroit having played the Chargers in a late-afternoon game last Sunday. L.A. runs a very different style of defense and also offers a contrasting passing game style and type of receiver than what the Broncos will see in Detroit.
What worries me about the Broncos
- The matchup of the Lions secondary against Russell Wilson and the Denver passing game. The Lions CBs have played poorly in outside coverage for a few weeks now, and the safety play in the downfield passing game has been even worse. Wilson’s passing largely emphasizes either short throws or long throws. He averages less air yards per attempt than Goff and isn’t as accurate throwing down the field as his Lions counterpart, but Wilson’s willingness to let it fly and try for the big play is an issue. They’re a big-play team more than a long-drive, wear-you-down kind of offense. These Lions have had problems with offenses like that (Seattle, Baltimore, Green Bay).
- Denver’s defense blitzes over 31 percent of the time, seventh-most in the league. And they’re not particularly good at it; their QB pressure rate of 5.2 percent (from Pro Football Reference) is 29th. By contrast, Detroit’s defense ranks 3rd in QB pressure percentage. However, Goff has really struggled with decision-making and ball security when pressured lately. Since the bye in Week 9, Goff has the league’s worst QBR when under pressure. Factor in Denver’s ability to create takeaways (12 in their last five games) and this could be a real issue.
- I always worry about a kohai challenging a senpai, and that’s what Campbell is facing by coaching against his mentor, Sean Payton. It’s an abstract state of discomfort for me that could very well be nothing. But it might be something, something that could impact even a good coach like Campbell.
Final score prediction
I’m leaning on the Lions getting back to what was working so well earlier in the season. Those things all should translate very effectively against a tough but vulnerable Broncos team. If the coverage remains broken and the Jared Goff/Ben Johnson combination has another bad day, it’s likely to be ugly for the home team. I think the Lions remember who they are in this one and come away with a much-needed win. Lions 31, Broncos 20.